Brilliant!
 

Gallup changed to reporting likely voters today (as opposed to registered). Because of that, Obama was expected to loose his five point lead, and we'd see an even race. But they do poll daily, and today's poll has Romney with a two point lead.

My eye is twitching.

There is an old saying "never underestimate the ability of the Democrats to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory".

That said, this thing isn't over yet but I'm a bit concerned because it's closer than I would otherwise like it to be. I'd prefer Obama safely up by between 8 and 10 points simply to get us outside the margin of error.

Cheers
Aj

http://s1.reutersmedia.net/resources...=CBRE89D1QV100

Can you imagine getting a call and it actually being Obama on the line? I think he was calling volunteers to thank them. Not sure.

He's so cool. I am starting to have a bad feeling though. Good news is that he is ahead among those voting early, and he is gaining ground with seniors who do get out and vote. The Medicare ads are probably having an effect. Otherwise the momentum is still all Romney's, and that's bad since they are essentially tied. Scary days.

Romney Won't Face 'The View'
 

Ann Romney will visit the women of ABC's "The View" solo Thursday, her husband no longer available to appear on the show he once referred to as "high risk."

"Governor Romney was supposed to be on with us this Thursday with Ann Romney," Walters said. "We were looking forward to it. Over the weekend, his people have said that he had scheduling problems, and would not be coming on with us, nor did not feel that he could reschedule. We are happy to have Mrs. Romney on with us, and are sorry that we won't have Governor Romney, and that's the situation."

In September, in leaked footage from a fundraiser Romney is heard saying that while "The View" is "fine," it is "high risk because of the five women on it, only one is conservative and four are sharp-tongued and not conservative."

Co-host Sherri Shepherd said at the time that she wasn't sure how Romney could be able to "handle the country" if he can't "handle four sharp-tongued women."

http://news.yahoo.com/romney-wont-fa...-politics.html

------------------


I am not a View fan but this might be worth watching.

I looked it up. There's nothing on Obama's schedule today except the morning briefing. I should hope not. No sightseeing! No football. No breaks of any kind. Don't even eat. Better you should be hungry tomorrow.

http://lh3.ggpht.com/-XoF-pE7P9wo/UH...jpg?imgmax=800

http://rlv.zcache.com/i_bark_for_bar...2en8go_400.jpg

Romney has gained less than half a point in the last few days. I think the bounce happened. He still has the ground gained, but there is no more forward momentum from it.

Man, there is a lot of pressure on Obama tomorrow. He's still winning because of his slight lead in key swing states. I have been watching the Vegas odds too. Right now it's Obama 4/9 and Romney 7/4.

In a bizarre but also good note, Obama has a slight lead in Arizona. That's 11 electoral votes. That would be huge. We wouldn't need Virgina, which is iffy. Florida looks like it is gone. No surprise.

What concerns me, other than Obama's performance tomorrow, is voter suppression in Ohio. I remember during Bush-Gore, Republicans from other states bussed up to Ohio to intimidate voters in line. During Kerry-Bush, sending too few voting machines to Democratic districts resulted in those horrible lines. And there were machines in Youngstown, I think, that switched votes from Kerry to Bush automatically. Supposedly a malfunction.

And this year's brouhaha re early voting. And did you hear about these billboards? In minority neighborhoods around Cleveland. Clearly meant to intimidate.

http://mjcdn.motherjones.com/preset_..._billboard.png

Yup.

http://www.whitehouse.gov/schedule

Rosie Perez

Perez mocks the Republican nominee in a YouTube video posted Sunday — part of a series of humorous ads targeting Romney, entitled, “Actually ... the truth matters.”

The super PAC-powered campaign, which is backed by the Jewish Council for Education and Research and the American Bridge 21st Century, aims to spread “the truth, because the truth matters — even in politics,” according to the actually.org website.

The excerpt includes Romney saying it “would be helpful to be Latino” in his effort to win the election.

Not that funny, but . . .
 

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/...721b_blog.html

President Obama Accuses Opponent of Contracting “Romnesia

Voting Machines..
 

I'm seeing a lot of chatter on independent and left newsites and facebook pages about Tagg Romney (son of Mitt) having purchased electronic voting machines that will be used in the 2012 elections in Ohio and other states. The news is that a Bain Capital investment team involved in H.I.G. Capital has taken over Hart Intercivic, the voting machine company.

Is anyone else hearing this? And if true how the heck is this legal?

Real Clear Politics and the Romney campaign seem to think he has North Carolina. I think he will get Florida and Virginia. That makes it all about Ohio. Like that's news. But with states like Pennsylvania and Michigan moving from 8 and 7 point Obama leads to 4 and 3, and the rest truly truly ties, it would be so easy for Obama to lose. Nate Silver still says the chances of Obama willing are 67.9 percent. And he thinks Obama will win both the popular and the electoral vote. But he projects a 1.1 percent lead in popular votes.

That's just too close to call.

I used to think Obama probably had it. I now think there's no way to know till election day unless something dramatic breaks.

It really is too close to tell right now. And then there is the fear that the Gallup poll could be picking something up that the rest aren't. If they are, Gallup doesn't know what it is. they truly do not know why they are getting Romney to poll 6 and 7 pts ahead nationally when no one else is. It's like a ghost in the room though.

Politico had it. I guess because it's about three companies removed, and it's the candidate's son. But I get you.

Now THIS will make you paranoid
 

http://livewire.talkingpointsmemo.co...aud-billboards

Clear Channel Outdoor said on Saturday it will take down anti-voter fraud billboards that had come under criticism in the Cleveland area because they were placed in mostly Hispanic and African-American neighborhoods. The company said the billboards were paid for by an anonymous corporation in violation of Clear Channel's policies. Clear Channel said that the anonymous buyer preferred to take down the billboards rather than disclosing they company's name, according to the Cleveland Plain-Dealer.

Subject: Tagg Romney Invested in Ohio Electronic Voting Machines

As the election gets closer, we hear more and more about the lies and deceptions, here's another troubling fact:

http://www.politicolnews.com/tagg-ro...ting-machines/


and the Debate's on during MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL>

good heavens!! She needs to share her results!!

http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisf...ins?intcmp=239

I like this journalists writings in general.

In this article I love the paragraphs that summarizes his take on the two candidates thus:

"With just a fortnight to go before polling day, the "show" has been terrible. Democrats are running the same acts that they did last time, and hoping that nobody will notice. Concluding the first TV debate, President Barack Obama's closing argument was: "Four years ago I said that I'm not a perfect man and I wouldn't be a perfect president ... But I also promised that I'd fight every single day on behalf of the American people and the middle class, and all those who are striving to get in the middle class. I've kept that promise and if you'll vote for me, then I promise I'll fight just as hard in a second term." I tried my best. I want another go. It's hardly a pitch bursting with vision.

His opponent, Mitt Romney, is worse. He has visions a-plenty. In his crystal ball he sees a land of free-market unicorns galloping under tax-slashing, deficit-reducing rainbows where, if only government would get out of the way, prosperity would fall from the sky. Those are the visions that he will admit to, and insists that he has costed. The ones he won't take ownership of look like a black and white version of Mike Leigh's 2004 film about illegal abortion in 1950s London, Vera Drake, in a land full of ungrateful moochers."
(Gary Younge, Guardian 21.10.12)

Well, unfortunately no matter how often I look at polls or read another article, they are all telling me it's a close race. :|

If my life depended on correctly choosing who would be the next president I would say Obama. I think he does still have the Electoral College advantage in several of the key swing states. It mostly boils down to Ohio. (see I have nothing new). Whoever wins Ohio will almost certainly be President, and I do think Obama still has the edge there.

My biggest concern is voter turnout. The Dems do seem to be doing well with early voting, so that should help. It's just that enthusiasm is way down from 2008.

My second biggest concern is in a very close race we will have Republican shenanigans- especially in Ohio.

I do think at this point that Obama will win but it is way too close for comfort!

Close races are scary.

Polls are biased I believe, so I am trying to discount them. My friends and I have collected the mailers, the literature left on the doorknobs and fenc and perused it all. We have researched where the money comes from for candidates, ballot issues here and there. One of my friends sounds like she is doing just what Bully is. We all went over the Voter's Guide over the weekend, and spent hours looking up who , what and where on the Calif. issues

On voter day turnout****Seeing the electoral counts and then voter ballot recounts and feeling that something fishy somewhere will jump out attcha after the vote booths close.

CNN reports "47 young, female and undecided voters" this late in the game ..WOW


Mother Jones
7 Highlights You Missed From the Romney Video

http://www.motherjones.com/mojo/2012...draising-video
"By now you've probably heard about the secret video we published exposing a bunch of real talk from Mitt Romney as he dined with rich Republican donors. But the hour-plus footage, which left the Romney campaign reeling and provoked a full-blown eruption of "chaos on Bullshit Mountain," is a real embarrassment of riches, as it were. Here are some telling moments that you may not have seen yet from Romney's unvarnished Q&A behind closed doors at the $50,000-per-plate fundraiser in Boca Raton on May 17:"

early voting tomorrow
i am so ready for this election to be over.
there is NO WAY that Romney is gonna win....

I do look at polls, but I look at them over time and for trends. There is always the margin of error and there is always some "statistical noise" going on, but I do not think they are meaningless.

I like Nate Silver and do read him every day. If you really want to geek out on the numbers, his article today is awesome.

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/

His bottom line for today:

"There remains an outside chance that the race will break clearly toward one or the other candidate, after the third debate on Monday or because of some intervening news event, but the odds are strong that we will wake up on Nov. 6 with a reasonable degree of doubt about the winner. For that matter, we may wake up on Nov. 7 still uncertain about who won.

Nonetheless, stipulating that the race is clearly very close is not an adequate substitute for placing any kinds of odds on it at all. And the central premise behind why we see Mr. Obama as the modest favorite is very simple: he seems to hold a slight advantage right now in enough states to carry 270 electoral votes."

Silver currently shows Obama with a 67.7% to win.

The PBS video on called The Choice 2012 I watched last night made a good point -- similar to what Daktari quoted above. Obama isn't really running on his record because no one is happy with it. He is scaring people with the possibility of Romney. The more rational Romney looks, the less likely Democratic voters are to turn out. Romney was scary during the Republican primaries when he was playing to the base. Now he has morphed into Moderate Mitt as Clinton called him. And he is a good debater. So . . . .

This Clear Channel billboard thing in Ohio chilled me. Not that I think the billboards had that much of an effect. But that the company who paid for them chose to have them taken down rather than have their identity revealed. Someone has something to hide -- probably a connection to Romney. In any case, I think there are a lot of potential behind the scenes shenanigans in Ohio. The behavior of the Secretary of State, John Husted, around the early voting law is reason enough to be worried. I won't recount all this. Rachel Maddow has been following it closely, and I know most of you watch her. And Ohio has a documented history of election tampering.

If we have another stolen election, who are we as a nation? Oh well, I am running away with myself. But with a significant amount of wealth, education, and privilege, we are going to hand the democratic process in this nation over to the oligarchy -- cause we can't be bothered to insist on election reform?

OK. I gotta stop. I can be relied upon to veer off into one political rant or another given the slightest push. I am scared. I am volunteering this week and next just to calm my nerves.

I also read Nate Silver every day, and I comb through the Real Clear Politics list of polls and their graphs, etc. And I play with one of those clickable electoral college maps somewhat obsessively. Not counting reading Politico and the papers. And it's not reassuring. Bulldog's summary is where I am. I think Silver is optimistic unfortunately. Based on what? I don't know.

What bothers me is that I heard someone talk about how many states have ended up actually coming in more than four points from how they polled. So we have swing states polling at 1 and 2 point differences. That doesn't mean anything. Heck we are calling four point leads as "leaning" when they may not mean a thing. Really a lot of states are in play. And anything could happen. Obama's ground game is good, but I can't possibly know if it will be enough. So I am scared.

Before the primaries, my mother, a lifelong Democrat, was disillusioned enough with Obama that she wasn't going to vote. Her disgust with Romney is what is getting her off her ass. Last time I talked to her she said, "Oh well, if Romney wins, it won't be the worst thing. He's not Bush. He won't get us in another war." She lives in Florida. She will vote cause she's an old lady and that's what old ladies do. And she will vote for Obama, but tracking her attitude toward the election has not been encouraging to me.

I've been skeptical about Romney's "surge" after the first debate. Yes I know it was a disaster for Obama, but it just doesn't add up for me that the swing could be that big. Then I tell myself, you are just trying to convince yourself. I don't know, for me it doesn't add up. I know many people will disagree with me about that. I do think Obama has a bit of a lead. But it is too close when it only shows 1-2 points lead to be comfortable. I do agree with Martina about that. I think this is a Base Election- which means Democrats need to get out and vote. Yikes. OK I still think Obama is in a better position to win but not by much.

It's a little hard to go by the polls because of the question of who will actually vote. Those "likely voter" polls use different formulas to determine who is a likely voters and the tend to skew older because if you have a long history of voting you are more likely to vote. But we saw in 2008 a lot of people, especially in the African-American community, who were voting for the first time.

If voter turnout is good in Ohio, Obama will win it. While it's not impossible for Romney to win without Ohio, it's pretty unlikely. Romney has to have Florida. If Obama can take Florida, and I do not think he will unfortunately, that is pretty close to game-set-match. With a really strong voter turnout it could be a decisive victory for Obama as it was in 2008. But if turnout is low--hence all the voter suppression efforts by the Rs in PA and OH--Romney has a chance.

I think as a political party it should be time to do some soul-searching when your best electoral strategy is to make it harder for people to vote.

October 22, 2012
Poll Addict Confesses
By DAVID BROOKS

THis happened to a friend of a friend. So so disgusting. There is a high school girl living there. It's an implicit threat. It may be in Virginia -- the town -- but it's a college town. Don't the reactionary bastards expect there to be some liberals living there?

OH, TRIGGER ALERT. There is a picture of a dead animal carcass draped over an Obama sign.

http://www.newsleader.com/apps/pbcs....=2012310220012

<smirk> Salt Lake Tribune Endorses President Obama
 

From the Article:

More troubling, Romney has repeatedly refused to share specifics of his radical plan to simultaneously reduce the debt, get rid of Obamacare (or, as he now says, only part of it), make a voucher program of Medicare, slash taxes and spending, and thereby create millions of new jobs. To claim, as Romney does, that he would offset his tax and spending cuts (except for billions more for the military) by doing away with tax deductions and exemptions is utterly meaningless without identifying which and how many would get the ax. Absent those specifics, his promise of a balanced budget simply does not pencil out.