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AtLast 03-15-2011 06:21 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dreadgeek (Post 301911)
Andrew:

I will do my best to explain to the limit of my own understanding.

IF the worst of all possible scenarios were to happen and one or more reactors experienced a catastrophic meltdown of the entire pile and IF it then melted through the primary containment vessel AND the outer containment vessel and IF it then melted into the earth and had enough energy to keep melting material until it reached the water table THEN there could be an explosive release of steam and what would then be highly radioactive dirt into the environment. But notice that there are a lot of conditionals before it gets there. A lot of things would have to go wrong for things to get that bad.

However, that is vanishingly unlikely while still having a probability that is larger than 0 (where 0 means that there's no chance of it happening and 1 means that it is certain to happen).

As I understand it, right now NONE of the reactors are undergoing active fission. This is good. That means that all they have to do is keep pumping water into the cores, keeping them submerged, until such time as the decay heat reaches a manageable level. Think about the inside of the core like you would either fireworks (the kind you buy from the Boy Scouts) or a hot pan. When I was a kid and we would do fireworks on the 4th of July, my job was to fill up a bucket or washtub with water. My dad would light the fireworks, they'd burn, we'd dunk them in water and the next day pour the water out and then dispose of the fireworks. So the reactor is the firework, the sea water represents the bucket of water. Even after the fuel rods are pulled from the core (meaning they are no longer undergoing fission) there is residual heat--this is called the decay heat. That's why the cores have to be covered by water until the rods and the core cool down.

The fires (and as I was writing this another fire broke out) are actually happening in a storage area for spent fuel rods. The problem is that the area around this pool is now too hot (radioactively, not thermally) for workers to approach to put water in to fill the pools to keep the spent fuel rods (which are in cases) from becoming uncovered. This is where I wish we had more sophisticated robotics.


Cheers
Aj

Yes, I have to say that I was quite intrigued with the robotic capabilities used to deal with the Gulf deep water oil spill. Amazing, but a very different set of variable.

Andrew, Jr. 03-15-2011 07:00 PM


AJ,

Thank you for explaining this to me. I greatly appreciate it. :hangloose:

I am on information overload with the constant news. I am taking time off tomorrow to give myself a break. Tonight on ABC News with Diane Sawyer I saw a dead dog, and then she showed the devistation all over Japan from different perspectives. It is really the same destruction. So much suffering.

Miss Scarlett 03-15-2011 07:51 PM

From NPR:

Fukushima, Three Mile Island, Chernobyl: Putting It All In Perspective
by NPR Staff

The situation at Japan's Fukushima Daiichi facility is prompting many comparisons to the two prior crises that have become cultural touchstones for what can go wrong at a nuclear power plant: Three Mile Island and Chernobyl.

See how the disasters compare.

Three Mile Island
Date: March 28, 1979
Place: Near Harrisburg, Pa.

Problem -A failure involving the water pumps allowed pressure to build up inside the reactor core; in response, a relief valve automatically opened. But it failed to close again — and cooling water escaped the reactor. Meanwhile, operators at the plant didn't get the signal that the valve was still open.

What Happened To The Core -The nuclear fuel rods inside the reactor experienced a partial meltdown — meaning some of them overheated and melted. However, the radioactive material never escaped the containment vessel.

Exposure-Experts say the resulting radiation exposure was never enough to cause a detectable health effect in the general population.


Chernobyl
Date: April 26, 1986
Place: About 80 miles north of Kiev, Ukraine

Problem - Operators were performing a test to see how the reactor would fare in case of electrical failure, when a design flaw in the reactor caused a dramatic power surge.

What Happened To The Core - The core hadn’t been shut down prior to the test. The power surge triggered events that sent the nuclear reaction out of control — causing two explosions. The reactor was not surrounded by a containment structure, so the explosions and the subsequent fire sent a giant plume of radioactive material into the atmosphere and was spread out by the winds.

Exposure -At least 5 percent of the radioactive reactor core was released into the atmosphere. Two Chernobyl plant workers died on the night of the accident, and 28 more people died within a few weeks from radiation poisoning. Long term, several thousand more people were put at risk for cancer.


Fukushima Daiichi
Date: March 11
Place: Fukushima prefecture, about 150 miles north of Tokyo on Japan's northeastern coast

Problem - Emergency cooling systems at the plant started to fail after a massive quake and tsunami knocked out electricity at the facility. Workers have experienced numerous problems maintaining water levels in the three reactors that were in operation when the quake struck. Water is needed to keep the nuclear fuel rods inside the core from overheating. Officials suspect rods have melted in multiple reactors.

What Happened To The Core - So far, four of the six nuclear reactors are in trouble. In Unit Nos. 1 and 3, explosions occurred from a buildup of hydrogen gas. These were not nuclear blasts. Experts suspect the nuclear rods inside these two reactors have started to melt but have not breached the containment vessel, which is designed to keep radioactive material from escaping.

Unit No. 2 poses a bigger threat: An explosion may have caused a breach in the containment vessel, which may allow radioactive steam or water to escape

Unit No. 4, which had been closed down for maintenance before the quake hit, caught on fire. The fire occurred near a pond where spent fuel rods were left to cool off. Officials believe the fire caused a radiation leak near the pool. The challenge is keeping the rods — which are still hot — covered in water so that they don’t overheat and release more radioactive material.

Exposure - Not yet known.

Source: USNRC, World Nuclear Association

http://www.npr.org/2011/03/15/134568...in-perspective

Medusa 03-15-2011 08:25 PM

There's just been a report that the last 50 workers have been released :|

Which means that nobody is manning the reactors. :|

Which means they've given up :|

I hope like hell that is just a bad translation. They are clarifying now.

Medusa 03-15-2011 08:38 PM

Oh shit.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/...joa_story.html

Diva 03-15-2011 08:43 PM

Whoa......................

Rockinonahigh 03-15-2011 08:45 PM

I know very little about reactors,ive read some post but im a simple minded person who just deals with life as it comes.I just hope that when all this is over ...whenever its over,we all learn a lesson on how to protect ourselves and the world we live on from these things when they happen.My heart goes out to all off the people of Japan as well as many others who will be effected by these circumstances.Who ever our highr power may be,may he or she look upon us with benevolent eyes.

socialjustice_fsu 03-15-2011 08:46 PM

Where is Dreadgeek? I want to know more and who better than to turn to for laymen's terms than our own scientist?

Linus 03-15-2011 08:48 PM

http://www.cbc.ca/news/world/story/2...r-worries.html

Medusa 03-15-2011 08:48 PM

I bet she'll be in shortly. :)


From what I understand, the radiation has become too high for the workers to continue (based on the most recent preliminary reports). I keep thinking that these poor people probably haven't slept in days. I noticed that there was already a story referring to them as the "Fukushima 50"

Wryly 03-15-2011 08:59 PM

U.S.S. Ronald Reagan received almost a month’s worth of radiation in just one hour.

dreadgeek 03-15-2011 09:12 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Medusa (Post 302071)
There's just been a report that the last 50 workers have been released :|

Which means that nobody is manning the reactors. :|

Which means they've given up :|

I hope like hell that is just a bad translation. They are clarifying now.

Actually it appears that they were off-site for 45 minutes. There was a spike in radiation, they do not know why it spiked. I'm trying to get the latest update from the IAEA but right now, their traffic is so high that I can't get the page to load!

I will update as I get more information.

Cheers
Aj

dreadgeek 03-15-2011 10:11 PM

Here's the latest from the IAEA.

Japan Earthquake Update (16 March 2011, 03:55 UTC)
Japanese authorities have informed the IAEA that a fire in the reactor building of unit 4 of the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant was visually observed at 20:45 UTC of 15 March. As of 21:15 UTC of the same day, the fire could no longer be observed.

Fire of 14 March

As previously reported, at 23:54 UTC of 14 March a fire had occurred at unit 4. The fire lasted around two hours and was confirmed to be extinguished at 02:00 UTC of 15 March.

Water level in unit 5

Japanese authorities have also informed the IAEA that at 12:00 UTC of 15 March the water level in unit 5 had decreased to 201 cm above the top of the fuel. This was a 40 cm decrease since 07:00 UTC of 15 March. Officials at the plant were planning to use an operational diesel generator in unit 6 to supply water to unit 5.

The IAEA continues to liaise with the Japanese authorities and is monitoring the situation as it evolves.


Japan Earthquake Update (15 March 2011, 22:30 UTC)
Japanese authorities have informed the IAEA that the evacuation of the population from the 20-kilometre zone around Fukushima Daiichi has been successfully completed.

The Japanese authorities have also advised that people within a 30-km radius to take cover indoors. Iodine tablets have been distributed to evacuation centres but no decision has yet been taken on their administration.

The IAEA continues to liaise with the Japanese authorities and is monitoring the situation as it evolves.

suebee 03-15-2011 10:22 PM

A new quake hit Japan about 15 minutes ago. Enough to make buildings sway in Tokyo. From the BBC: "The Japan Meteorological Agency said a change in sea levels was possible, the AFP reports."

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-12307698

Diva 03-15-2011 10:22 PM

So there's a lot of talk about radiation....and thyroid issues....and iodine tablets......


But what about the rest of one's body? How does radiation affect THAT?

Just curious.....cuz I'm thinking that thyroid cancer may just be a drop in the bucket compared to other things which high doses of radiation can jerk around!




AtLast 03-15-2011 10:52 PM

http://www.cnn.com/2011/WORLD/asiapc...pt=T1&iref=BN1

Continuing problems raise fears of greater radiation threat By the CNN Wire Staff
March 16, 2011 12:34 a.m. EDT

Still, many conflicting reports. Verification is difficult and it appears the Japanese government is quite angry with the utility company that runs this plant in terms of not reporting the full story with on-going problems and to the Japanese government. So much is going on there all at one time.

The 50 remaining workers have been evacuated from the plant due to radiation levels (gamma level). It sounds like this is a temporary measure.

Mtn 03-15-2011 11:44 PM

I heard one talking head say that pregnant women and young children should be out of the area, as they are most vulnerable to radiation, I hope that already happened, before the talking head said it. In the late 80's early 90's I worked at a preschool that had several families that had "survived" Chernobyl, the long lasting effects, the future health issues, and in fact deaths makes one question the term "survival". I just keep praying.

AtLast 03-16-2011 08:03 AM

[QUOTE=Mtn;302259]I heard one talking head say that pregnant women and young children should be out of the area, as they are most vulnerable to radiation, I hope that already happened, before the talking head said it. In the late 80's early 90's I worked at a preschool that had several families that had "survived" Chernobyl, the long lasting effects, the future health issues, and in fact deaths makes one question the term "survival". I just keep praying.[/QUOTE]

I agree with your statement about quality of life in terms of survival from radiation exposure. Something to consider with future building of nuclear power plants worldwide. Frankly, I fear the present and future lack of R&D funds in the US (both public and private- Wall St investors don't like the risk in nuclear power). What is learned by this situation can't be corrected unless research is supported further.

There are so many variables involved in designing and building, then effectively running these plants. Yet, the magnitude of the natural disasters hitting those plants and how they rendered even the battery back up for cooling the cores inoperable demonstrates vulnerability even with the best and the brightest working in this field. And politics do get in the mix that I think blocks the real experts in these fields to build the best and safest plants possible.

Sitting with an elderly Japanese neighbor this past few days and hearing about what radiation posining does to people has been quite sobering. Her initial responses to what her home country is going through, as well as the loss of family still living there was one thing- the shift in her emotional response while hearing of the radiation threat is something else.

The new photos of the damage to the plants in Japan make me want the 50 workers that left for a short time to not be there at all.

Here is a link to a Mayo site about radiation posining and symptoms.

http://www.mayoclinic.com/health/rad...CTION=symptoms

Glenn 03-16-2011 08:12 AM

ATL;They'll be back. The Japanese are very honorable and proud. They would die for family and friends. Their behavior through all this is exemplary. I have not heard of any major looting, etc. We should learn this from them if this happens to us.

Diva 03-16-2011 08:24 AM

I haven't heard of any looting at all.....one of the things that reporters have noted time and again has been the patience of the Japanese.....and there was a report of a couple in their 70's.....getting their house ~ which still stood ~ back in order after it was flooded. Their faces were happy, they worked as they spoke with reporters. They wanted to get their house cleaned up quickly, so they could go and help others.

I don't wonder at all if this same thing happened here in the US, there are many who would go for the 'something for nothing' plan.

I honor and admire the Japanese people.


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