2012 US General Election Discussions: Start to Finish
 

A place for US politrical and campaign junkies to post, seeth, laugh, roll eyes, protest..... whatever you want to discuss as we roll along this trail.

Please feel free to post about all nationally significant elections in the 2012 general election. The US Congress and what happens in terms of party majority, etc. will be keeping us all interested, I'm certain!

Looks like the GOP possible presidential candidates are finally coming out of the gate. Ginrich in, Huckabee and Trump, out... Romney is really the front runner?

Yesterday's Meet the Press was quite interesting with Newt Ginrich as the first of the GOP candidates for the GOP nomination showing up.

Of course, much of what Ginrich said yesterday is being back peddled today... Ah, politics!!

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/3032608/

An analyst on Chris mathews yesterday brought up something that messes with my mind... Newt Ginrich is "new" to the young, twenty-something voters out there. Yikes!!

http://www.kvia.com/politics/27921868/detail.html

Hummm... Newt Ginrich didn't have a very good first week after he announced for the GOP nomination-

GOP Blasts Gingrich Over Budget, Health CommentsGingrich Says He's Victim Of 'Gotcha' Politics

By Alexander Mooney CNN Political Producer
POSTED: 7:23 am MDT May 17, 2011
UPDATED: 8:31 am MDT May 17, 2011

(CNN) -- Newt Gingrich has been an official presidential candidate for only a week, but the former House speaker is already under siege from fellow Republicans over recent comments that disparaged a House GOP budget proposal and appeared to endorse some form of a health care mandate that conservatives have long derided.

"This is a big deal," said Charles Krauthammer, the conservative Washington Post columnist. "He's done. He didn't have a big chance from the beginning but now it's over."

"I am not going to justify this. I'm not going to explain this," talk radio host Rush Limbaugh clamored. "The attack on Paul Ryan. The support for an individual mandate in health care? Folks, don't ask me to explain this. There is no explanation."

The uproar stems from Gingrich's comments during an interview on NBC's "Meet the Press" on Sunday, when the former House Speaker called a Medicare provision in the GOP budget proposal spearheaded by Rep. Paul Ryan a "radical change" and later indicated he supports requiring every citizen to buy health insurance or instead post a bond for insurance.
The two positions appeared contradictory, with Gingrich hammering Ryan's plan to impulse a mandatory voucher system in lieu of Medicare in one breath while offering support for mandated health coverage in the other.

"What you want to have is a system where people voluntarily migrate to better outcomes, better solutions, better options, not one where you suddenly impose it," Gingrich said of the Ryan plan that has proposed replacing Medicare with vouchers to be used toward private health care plans. "I am against Obamacare imposing radical change, and I would be against a conservative imposing radical change."

But in the same interview Gingrich said of an insurance mandate, "I agree that all of us have a responsibility to pay -- help pay for health care...And, I think that there are ways to do it that make most libertarians relatively happy. I've said consistently we ought to have some requirement that you either have health insurance or you post a bond."

Amidst charges of inconsistency, Gingrich released a Web video Monday in which he emphatically stated he was "for the repeal for Obamacare, and ... against any effort to impose a federal mandate on anyone because it is fundamentally wrong and I believe unconstitutional."A Gingrich spokesman also insisted Monday that "there is little daylight between Ryan and Gingrich."

"Newt would fully support Ryan if it were not compulsory," spokesman Rick Tyler said. "We need to design a better system that people will voluntarily move to. That is a major difference in design but not substance."

Still, some conservatives remain befuddled when it comes to just where Gingrich stands on health care, an issue that is believed to be rival Mitt Romney's biggest vulnerability, not the former House speaker's.

"He can't help himself. Gingrich prefers extravagant lambasting when a mere distancing would do, and the over-arching theoretical construct to a mundane pander. He is drawn irresistibly to operatic overstatement -- sometimes brilliant, always interesting, and occasionally downright absurd," Rich Lowry, the editor of the National Review, wrote Monday.

Meanwhile, House Majority Whip Eric Cantor called Gingrich's statements a "tremendous misspeak."

"I think that many have said now he's finished," Cantor told Chicago radio station WLS, according to The Hill. "I haven't had a chance to really dissect what in the world he's thinking ... so I probably would reserve judgment on that."

Meanwhile, it appears Gingrich is doing damage control at an event in Mason City, Iowa, on Tuesday, signing a petition calling for the repeal of the health care law.

And, in an interview with the Des Moines Register on Monday, Gingrich said he is the victim of "gotcha" politics.

"I've for two years gone around the country making speeches about Obamacare. I've said over and over, 'We should repeal it,'" he said. "And then people to go from all of that body of evidence to say, 'Yeah, but for 25 seconds yesterday, I thought you said X,' that's beyond gotcha."

:blink:

Newly Announced Contender for GOP Presidential Nomination--Tim Pawlenty
 

Eight Things To Know About Tim Pawlenty’s Anti-LGBT Record

Today former Governor Tim Pawlenty (R-MN) announced that he is exploring a Presidential run. In his announcement video, he presents a folksy midwest charm and extols the “brave men and women throughout this country’s history that have asked for nothing more than the freedom to work hard and get ahead without government getting in the way.” But when it comes to LGBT folks and their families, Pawlenty’s actions don’t live up to his lofty rhetoric. Below are eight things you should know about Pawlenty’s record on LGBT issues:

1. Pawlenty proudly opposes recognition of any same-sex unions: In a recent interview on FOX News, he told Greta Van Susteren that he will “never be at the point where I say all domestic relationship[s] are the same as traditional marriage. They are not.” He similarly bragged to the American Family Association’s Bryan Fischer in January about helping to craft a same-sex marriage ban in Minnesota. As part of his recent tour of speeches in Iowa, he also endorsed The Family Leader, a conservative group who promotes the idea that same-sex marriage is worse for people’s health than smoking.

2. Pawlenty supports maintaining Don’t Ask Don’t Tell, rescinding funding to implement its repeal, and perhaps not allowing gays and lesbians to serve at all: In January, he stated he would support reinstating the policy and that doing so would have no impact. Then, in February, he added that he would support rescinding the funding for its repeal as “a reasonable step.” He also refused to indicate whether he thinks gay and lesbian troops should have the right to serve in the military whatsoever.

3. Pawlenty regrets his vote as a state legislator supporting nondiscrimination protections based on gender identity: Citing its protection of “cross-dressing” and how confusing it would be for third-graders if Mr. Johnson showed up the next day as Mrs. Johnson, Pawlenty lamented his 1993 vote in support of the antidiscrimination law, earning the ire of LGBT groups for his distasteful remarks.

4. Pawlenty vetoed a bill extending end-of-life rights to same-sex couples: As a result of his veto, same-sex couples in Minnesota still have to go through the process of setting up a will to be protected if one partner dies. In addition, same-sex couples continue to be limited in the ability to seek restitution for wrongful death.

5. Pawlenty vetoed an anti-bullying bill adding sexual orientation and gender identity to Minnesota’s bullying policies and training: Despite numerous concessions made to get the governor’s support, he still vetoed the bill, claiming it was redundant and ignoring the new protections it offered the state’s LGBT students.

6. In 2001, Pawlenty opposed labor unions’ efforts to offer benefits to employees’ same-sex partners: The controversy led to a union strike in the fall of 2001, and then in February of 2003, the unions were forced to accept a compromise that stripped benefits from 85 same-sex partners who had previously been receiving them. [Star Tribune, 10/4/2001 and 2/18/03]

7. Pawlenty vetoed a bill allowing local municipalities in Minnesota to offer domestic partner benefits: The bill would have allowed cities, counties, and school districts to offer domestic partner benefits in the same way more than 300 private companies already do in the state.

8. Pawlenty vetoed a bill allowing state employees to use their accrued sick leave to take care of seriously ill family members: Domestic partners were removed from the bill in hopes that it would prevent a veto, but Pawlenty vetoed it anyway, stating that it would cost too much.

Oh, yeah... T-Paw.... yikes!

this is good news.
 

Herman Cain announces GOP bid for President
 

Tea Party Favorite Herman Cain Joins 2012 GOP Race

Published May 21, 2011
| FoxNews.com


Tea Party favorite Herman Cain announced his long-shot presidential candidacy to a raucous crowd in Atlanta Saturday, yelling, "I'm running for president of the United States and I'm not running for second."

At a rally attended by thousands, the businessman, author and talk radio show host showed he knows how to wow a conservative gathering. The crowd chanted, "Herman, Herman, Herman," as Cain unleashed the same soaring rhetoric and relentless attacks on President Obama that has created buzz in recent weeks.

"Let me tell you some of the reasons why I'm running for president of the United States.We have become a nation of crises," he said, citing morals, the economy, entitlement spending, immigration and foreign affairs as among the crises facing the nation.

"And we've got a deficiency of leadership crisis in the White House," he said to roaring cheers.

Now the 65-year-old Republican will see if he can use that grass-roots enthusiasm to turn a long-shot presidential campaign into a credible bid.

Cain supports a strong national defense, opposes abortion, backs replacing the federal income tax with a national sales tax and favors a return to the gold standard.

He's never held elected office, losing a three-way Republican U.S. Senate primary bid in Georgia in 2004 with one-quarter of the vote. His "Hermanator" political action committee has taken in just over $16,000 this year.

Cain says he's running "a bottoms-up, outside-the-box campaign." Supporters say he taps into the tea party-fueled desire for plain-speaking citizen candidates.

"I just love him," gushed Laura Miller, a self-described "Cainiac" from Jessup, Ga. "What he says makes so much sense."

Born in Memphis, Tenn., and raised in Atlanta, Cain is the son of a chauffeur and a maid. He attended historically black Morehouse College, earned a master's degree from Purdue University and worked as a mathematician for the Navy before beginning to scale the corporate ladder.

He worked at Coca-Cola, Pillsbury and Burger King before taking the helm of the failing Godfather's Pizza franchise, which he rescued by shuttering hundreds of restaurants.

He burst onto the political stage when he sparred with President Bill Clinton over the Democrat's health care plan at a 1994 town hall meeting.

"On behalf of all of those business owners that are in a situation similar to mine," asked Cain, "my question is, quite simply, if I'm forced to do this, what will I tell those people whose jobs I will have to eliminate?"

The late Jack Kemp, the GOP vice presidential nominee in 1996, once described Cain as having "the voice of Othello, the looks of a football player, the English of Oxfordian quality and the courage of a lion."

In 2006, Cain was diagnosed with liver and colon cancer. He says he's been cancer-free since 2007 and credits the nation's health care system with keeping him alive. He says it's one reason he's so opposed to the health overhaul championed by President Barack Obama.

At a speech last week in Macon, Ga., Cain gave a glimpse of the rationale for his candidacy. He said the American dream is under attack from runaway debt, a stagnant economy and a Democratic administration forcing a legislative agenda citizens don't want.

The Associated Press contributed to this report.

So, the madness begins.

I hear Palin has a "fire in her belly" to run....

Step right up! Step right up! Come and see the best show in town, the 2012 elections!! Let the circus begin!

It would be great to hear from members in state's that had Tea Party candidates elected in the national mid-terms- and what it looks like for their re-election in 2012.

I really like to hear election and campaign news via all the states from member's perspectives. There are so many state's outside of CA dealing with such serious economic stresses. I think that in 2012, "We the People" will vote primarily due to what is going on with our economy. Which does not mean Republican, at all.

Right now, the whole Ryan Plan debate seems to be kicking up a lot of debate no matter what party a person belongs to.

You know, you almost have to feel sorry for the GOP--almost. They did this to themselves, of course, so my sympathy for my former party only goes so far but I do kind of feel sorry for some of the candidates.

The three with the only *real* hope in the general election are Romney, Huntsman and Pawlenty. They also have the worst chances of making it through the primaries. None of them are *real and true* right-wing ideologues acceptable to the Tea Party. Two of them--and there's no delicate way to put this--are Mormons and while that wouldn't be a hindrance in the Democratic Party that WILL be a problem in the GOP. Evangelical Christians do not consider Mormonism a genuine Christian sect but a cult. Pawlenty is, well, Pawlenty and generates all the excitement of, say, dryer lint.

On the other side, the candidates most likely to excite the base aren't viable in the general election. Palin can win the GOP primary but she can't win the general election. She would have to pivot too much, repudiate too many of her positions and doing so would damage her brand. Bachmann is in the similar position to Palin. She is on record saying way too many wacky things to make it through the general although she could win the primary. Then there's Herman Cain who, I think, is running a vanity campaign. He has two problems--one is that he's black and while his presence at Tea Party rallies means he gives some air cover to the more racist elements, at the end of the day I don't think he can win the GOP primary.

The problem facing the GOP is that any candidate capable of passing muster with the Tea Party, the nativists and the Christian Coalition will be too far-right to make it in the general election. Anyone capable of winning the general election will have a hell of a time making it through the primary. Like I said, you almost feel sorry for the Republican Party.

Cheers
Aj

Could Weiner's twitter issue blow it for Dems picking up House seats in 2012?
 

UGH!! I have no idea what is really going on with this mess- but his not knowing if the damn pic is of himself is weird. I honestly don't understand why Weiner has not/did not call the police to deal with this and instead hires an attorney.

I am so tired of this kind of BS by our political leaders no matter what party they represent. You would think with all the dumbest stuff that has gone on with things like this- they would just not even do anything that remotely close to any kind of sex scrutiny! Some of these guys add to the stereotype of men being driven by their cocks to the point of stupidity- and I hate this power & penis mentality. It hurts all men.

Politically, as it is beginning to look like the Dems could take back the House in 2012 or at least make good gains, I think back to how many of these kinds of idiotic actions have caused the actions of a few end up with others losing elections. Which also makes me think about the US voter.... and also what sometimes feels like disrespect for voters as well.

I don't know if Weiner is hiding anything- but the idiot ought to know that if he is, that will most likely cause more problems than what he might have done in reality. With the close relationship with the Clinton’s of Weiner’s wife, this could end up being quite a fiasco. I don’t even want to go into how I feel about the marriages of some politicians. Sometimes I think I liked it better when we didn’t get all the scoops on their private lives. Although, this is a public issue since the damn pic could be viewed publically.

http://blogs.abcnews.com/thenote/2011/06/anthony-weiner-cannot-say-with-certitude-hes-not-subject-of-twitter-photo.html

OMG..The crazy madness begains.I often wonder as a country how the heck we get somany nut or Newt cases as it were running for the highest office in the country..I often think I may just find an island somewhere I can lease for some obscure gov move on it to get away from the dam polotics that is comeing up.We got very lucky this time when Obama got elected,please let a sane human being be in office when the dust settles.

And here comes Michelle Bachman..... Will she really?
 

http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2011/06/07/rollins-bachmann-will-be-strong-candidate-in-iowa/

Rollins: Bachmann will be strong candidate in Iowa By: CNN Deputy Political Director Paul Steinhauser


(CNN) – The campaign veteran who has signed up to run Rep. Michele Bachmann's expected bid for the Republican presidential nomination says the congresswoman from Minnesota would be a formidable candidate in the Iowa caucuses.

One day after longtime GOP strategist Ed Rollins confirmed to CNN that he would steer Bachmann's campaign if she announces her candidacy, which is expected later this month, Rollins said Bachmann "has a tremendous opportunity to follow the pattern of Mike Huckabee, whose campaign I was involved in four years ago. She'll be a very strong candidate in Iowa. She was born in Iowa. She was the first Republican woman to ever represent the neighboring state of Minnesota. She's got a tremendous opportunity to go into the religious right, which is a strong constituency."

Iowa's caucuses traditionally kick off the presidential primary and caucus calendar.

Rollins, who made his comments on CNN's "American Morning," was the campaign manager for President Ronald Reagan's 1984 re-election landslide over former Vice President Walter Mondale. Rollins, a guest on numerous CNN programs over the years, is also more recently known for running former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee's bid for the 2008 GOP presidential nomination. Huckabee went from being a long shot candidate to winning the Iowa caucuses before ultimately losing the nomination to Sen. John McCain of Arizona.

Rollins told CNN on Monday that "we'll try and duplicate what Huckabee did in Iowa. It's a good act to follow."

Rollins also says that Bachmann won't have a problem when it comes to fundraising, adding that "she's got a gigantic list" of supporters and contributors.

Asked about Bachmann's past controversial comments, Rollins said the congresswoman would "have a good team around her and we'll basically make sure that everything is 100 percent fact checked."

Bachmann has all-but-declared her candidacy. She recently told reporters and supporters in Iowa that "when we make that all-important announcement – which will happen in the month of June – that announcement. I am pleased to tell you tonight, will be made in Iowa. And I will also tell you that announcement will be made in the city where I was born, in Waterloo."

Bachmann is also taking part in next Monday's CNN/WMUR/New Hampshire Union Leader GOP presidential debate in New Hampshire.

-----------------

http://politicalhumor.about.com/od/r...ann-quotes.htm

Dumb Michele Bachmann Quotes
Top 10 Craziest Michele Bachmann Quotes of All Time

Rats leaving a sinking campaign
 

So there has been a mass exodus from Newt "Legend in his own mind" Gingrich's campaign. I think we can now officially take his campaign off the bbq, it's done.

I'm waiting for him to jump up and claim that with this mass exodus of staff, he has the rest of the GOP field right where he wants them.

GOP = Grand Old Party = Republican Party

A Huff Post analyst said today (on MSNBC) that Ginrich only really wants to be in the debates to "show off," not really run for president! had to laugh- does he really believe that many people just want to listen to him? His ego amazes me.

Had to add that Rush Limbaugh went after Romney for agreeing that science is right about global warming and we need to decrease greenhouse gases! Can't have any science "believers" in the White House, yanno...

You have a very good point! It looks like he is going to be at the GOP debate on Monday, however. Guess he has to keep his mug out there to continue getting speaking gigs!

I have to admit that it might be fun to see Ginrich debate Obama. Gawd, I hope to hell that the GOP nominee turns out to at least be someone that we all actually would want to watch debate Obama. The idea of Romney or T-Paw debating him is not very exciting. I know, I am a politics junkie. What's an old fart 60's activist gonna do!

I keep having the feling that any of the possible GOP candidates that could have general election viability and some personality traits that might move people are just waiting until 2016 to run.

So, will Rick Perry join in? This weekend I saw clips of him at the big conservative shin-dig (can't think of the name) and I thought- "A Bush carbon copy."

Oh, that's Jeb.... who I imagine will be a candidate sometime in the near future. As in 2016, AFTER Obama has served his second term.

We can count Palin out
 

So Palin has canceled the rest of her "I love the America that loves me tour" and gone back to Alaska half-way through. At this point, I think that pretty much wraps it up for any speculation about her running for President. Not even the Democrats could avoid making her tendency to quit things half-done an albatross. Hell, that ad writes itself. "Sarah Palin quit being governor after 20 months. She quit her 'bus tour of America' halfway through. Would she quit being President after that proved not to be fun either?"

That said, I didn't think she was going to run. She makes a hell of a lot more money and can be much more irresponsible and uninformed if she's a pundit. Since she'll never be making policy, she doesn't have to actually know anything, she can just throw firebombs at the Democrats or at liberals, claiming that anyone who would even think of voting Democrat is not just in sympathy with Al Qaeda or North Korea but is ACTUALLY Kim Jong-Il. If she's a serious contender for President, she can't do that.

My read on Palin is that she is a grifter and she has hit on a fantastic scam. Go out amongst the people, stoke up their resentments, pretend to be 'just like them' and, don't ya know, there's this book you can buy or this DVD you can buy or this tee-shirt or watch the reality TV show. She'd be a fool to give up that scam for a responsible job like POTUS. She may be woefully under-informed about any particular subject you care to mention (Paul Revere etc.) but she's not a fool.

Cheers
Aj

Your take on her strikes me as right on! She has found a better gig than Ginrich did. Both of these people view politics as their gravy train. Huckabee may also be in this camp.

No, she is not a fool at all. She's laughing all the way to the bank as "they" say.

I thought she might continue the bus tour in terms of wanting to build up a nominee contender like Santorum who seems like her "brand of tea."

Besides all that, Bachman has taken over the spotlight for a woman nominee and I think the Christian-right sees her as a more viable "candidate" to push their agenda in the GOP and the platform that surfaces for the 2012 race.

Huntsman jumped in and I actually have to give some kudos for this statement- "I respect the president," Huntsman said. "He and I have a difference of opinion on how to help the country we both love. But the question each of us wants the voters to answer is who will be the better president, not who is the better American."

He breaks away from all the Obama as "not an American" BS and away from all the nutso-crazy spins from so many of the Tea Party crowd. He could be viewed as a serious contender against Obama. I would love to be behind the scenes at Obama re-election headquarters as they discuss the possible GOP field in terms of who would be the GOP candidate that could beat Obama. And he is vulnerable, I think. Although, his team in 2008 kept their eyes on real prize- electoral votes. But, 2012 could be a very different situation.

The Democrats have got to stay focused on job creation and getting the jobless rate down. Yes, I say this because I want Obama re-elected, but also because damn it, people in the US are having a hell of a bad time in this economy and what is the future going to be like for young people entering the job market?

I think Obama strategists need to knock off trying to talk about the economy in terms of what Obama walked into (inheriting Bush's mess) and build the case for his methods and policies being a more solid way to re-build the US economy. They have to find a way to make the general population understand that we do need to invest in infra-structure for the kinds of jobs that are a reality in our future. A very tough sell.
One that has to be done.

For me, thinking of Obama as a one-term president is fraught with fear of the Health-Care Reform Acts being repealed because these are visionary and do need the test of time for people to see that economically they make sense and that they will bring a healthier and stronger workforce along that represents all of the people. The GOP has thwarted health care based upon a free society since FDR. It is a fucking big deal!

Does anyone know anything about New Mexico gov. Gary Johnson? From what I've read about him so far, it sounds like he may the the right man for the job.

He is a fucking idiot who tried to destroy the public education system in NM. He made his millions on constuction jobs paid for by the state. Just because he thinks pot should be legal does not mean he is any kind of man for the job.

edited to add He vetoed 200 of 424 bills in his first six months in office – a national record of 48% of all legislation – and used the line-item veto on most remaining bills. He is a libertarian and is anti-tax and anti-government in general.

I just hope NO ONE makes the mistake of under-estimating Michele Bachman. She is not stupid and is a very astute politician. She can and will give Obama a run for his money. If Nader jumps in as a Green Party candidate, she could end up President......be very very very afraid of that and make plans to move to a free country cuz this one will no longer be free.

Oh, yes, do pay attention to Nader entering the race. Obama is vulnerable and so many people, including left-wingers are so tired of Washington antics and stagnation.

The more I think about things, I can't help the thought of all the talk of Bohner not being in control as the Speaker over the Tea party reps as bogus- I think it is intentional in terms of taking Obama down.

The House since the mid-terms has done nothing for job creation (as was the Tea Party cry) and promoted nothing but anti-abortion and women's health bills. Along with this, the GOP/Tea Party govenors elected have been focused on the same things along with taking unions down. No real job creation work going on with them, either. Consequently, the jobless rate has stayed the same with one small movement downward, then back up.

The GOP knows that the rate of unemployment IS how they can win the White House- probably the only way. So, they have stayed away from actually doing anything to help create jobs so that it is the number one issue on the minds of the electorate in 2012.

Because the US is practically split down the middle politically, and Independents are the ones that really call elections, the GOP knows that halting job creation no matter how they do it will actually work in their favor. All they have to do is keep up the distractions with legislation to set the stage and continue to have the circus continue to focus on Obama not producing jobs and they are in.

I think the GOP political machine including Boehner is very much in control and knows exactly what it is doing even if some of their candidates draw laughter.

I also think Bachman is dangerous and that the GOP will rally behind someone like her- even the traditional GOP base- to gain the presidency and continue to dismantle the middle class in the US. They really do not care about middle and working class people at all. The rise of a millionaire elite is what they want.

During times of economic stress, I think someone like Bachman being elected could happen. It's all in the "calculations."

Anyone voting for her? :|



You know it's bad when Fox is calling out Tea Party members.

I'm really concerned that she has charisma and appeal to average people and just might get elected. On the other hand, if she's out (because of the Medicare thing reported), all the other GOP'ers have as much charisma together as yesterday's potatoes and I don't see anyone else viable enough to win it.

Longing for a 6-week long campaign season...
 

I have decided to pretend I am in the UK for the next 16 months or so :|

I often think about how great it would be to have the UK time table for elections here in the US. Think of all the money that would be saved (and maybe put to better use)!

I am also a staunch supporter of public financed elections in the US. Then there would be a level field and all this insane fund raising would stop. Politicians in the US start campaigning for re-election in many ways the day after they take office!

http://caucuses.desmoinesregister.co...publican-pack/

Iowa Poll: Romney, Bachmann lead Republican pack
© 2011, Des Moines Register and Tribune Company

Two-time candidate Mitt Romney and tea party upstart Michele Bachmann are neck and neck leading the pack, and retired pizza chief Herman Cain is in third place in a new Des Moines Register Iowa Poll of likely participants in the state’s Republican presidential caucuses.

The results are bad news for the earnest Tim Pawlenty, a former Minnesota governor who is in single digits despite a full-throttle campaign.

Romney, a former Massachusetts governor and business executive, claims 23 percent, and Bachmann, a Minnesota congresswoman and evangelical conservative, garners 22 percent. Neither has done heavy lifting in Iowa.

The rest of the Republican field is at least 12 points behind them.

Cain, a retired Georgia business executive, is the top choice for 10 percent of potential caucusgoers.

Former U.S. House Speaker Newt Gingrich, whose entire Iowa campaign team resigned in frustration two weeks ago over its perception that his efforts are half-hearted, is tied in fourth place at 7 percent with the libertarian-leaning Ron Paul, a longtime Texas congressman.

Pawlenty is at 6 percent; Rick Santorum, a former U.S. senator from Pennsylvania, 4 percent; and Jon Huntsman, a former Utah governor and ambassador to China, 2 percent.

“The surprise here is how quickly Michele Bachmann is catching on,” said Jennifer Duffy, a political analyst with the nonpartisan Cook Political Report of Washington, D.C. “To me, she’s the one to watch, not Romney.”

Campaign veterans caution that this is a very early test. They expect the race to take many twists and turns before the Iowa finish line is reached. The caucuses are scheduled for Feb. 6, 2012.

Indeed, results indicate Iowa Republicans would be receptive to additional candidates in the race. Just 14 percent of likely Republican caucusgoers say their minds are made up about their choice in the presidential race. Another 14 percent don’t have a first choice yet. Sixty-nine percent say they could be persuaded to support a candidate other than their first choice.

Those findings could encourage potential candidates now on the sidelines, such as Gov. Rick Perry of Texas or former vice presidential nominee Sarah Palin. The poll tested favorability of several prominent Republicans, but the trial heat question included only those who have declared they’re running.

The telephone survey of 400 likely Republican caucusgoers was conducted June 19 to 22, roughly eight months before the Iowa caucuses, which kick off the presidential nominating process.

The poll, conducted by Selzer & Co. of Des Moines, has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.9 percentage points.

Pawlenty’s big effort in Iowa not helping yet
Romney’s poll-topping strength might seem to send a message that he can do well in Iowa without trying. But several politics watchers said name identification is his foundation, and his numbers might sink if he sticks with a pruned-back campaign in the Hawkeye State.

“Romney has to decide whether to start working hard,” Duffy said, “or he could see that front-runner status slip away pretty quickly.”

Iowans have seen this movie before: Four years ago, Romney led for months before he was surpassed by Mike Huckabee, who found a faithful flock in the religious right.

The other shocker, Duffy said, is the low finish for Pawlenty, who has taken part in two national debates and mounted an expensive, Iowa-centric campaign with an A-list team of consultants.

Republican pollster Randy Gutermuth pointed out that the Iowa Poll took place before Pawlenty’s television ads, direct mail and other paid voter outreach had time to penetrate.

“It’s way too early to be writing off Tim Pawlenty,” said Gutermuth, who is not affiliated with any presidential candidate. “I’m sure they’d rather be leading today, but I don’t think they’re jumping out of buildings either.”

Bachmann, who has spent 18 fewer days in Iowa this election cycle than Pawlenty and has yet to rev up her campaign machine here, has a heady favorability rating.

In the wake of her much-praised performance in the June 13 GOP debate in New Hampshire, the first of the season for her, 65 percent of potential Republican caucusgoers have a good impression of her.

And it’s an intense following: 31 percent say their opinion is very favorable, half again higher than the 19 percent who have a very favorable impression of Romney.

People like Pawlenty, too – 58 percent have a favorable impression of him – but he just isn’t as often a first or second choice for president.

Conservative? Yes, both socially, fiscally
Iowans who consider themselves tea party supporters make up 63 percent of respondents, so it fits that Bachmann, founder of the tea party caucus in Congress, is their favorite, at 29 percent. Cain, who has reached out to tea party supporters as an Atlanta-based radio host and candidate, follows with 16 percent. Romney is the favorite for 14 percent.

Less than half of poll respondents, 46 percent, identify themselves as born-again or fundamentalist Christian. In comparison, 60 percent of Republican caucusgoers in 2008 considered themselves born-again or evangelical Christians, according to an entrance poll done for the Associated Press and several television networks.

The race at this early point is close among Iowans who identify themselves as born-again Christians, with 20 percent for Bachmann and 17 percent for Romney.

Poll respondents are decidedly conservative: 75 percent consider themselves very or mostly conservative on social issues such as abortion and gay marriage, and 83 percent consider themselves very or mostly conservative on fiscal issues such as the federal budget.

“Our debt situation is just going to ruin our country if we don’t do something about it,” said Romney backer Morris Grotheer, a retired chemist from Urbandale. “I’m 82 years old, and I don’t see a very bright future.”

A new HuffPost Pollster trend estimate, filtered by the Register to include live interview polls only, shows much less support for Bachmann nationally.

Romney leads with 29 percent. Gingrich and Paul are at 9 percent, with Cain and Bachmann at 8 percent and Pawlenty at 7 percent.

About the poll
The Iowa Poll, conducted for The Des Moines Register by Selzer & Co. Inc. of Des Moines, is based on interviews with 1,831 registered Republican and independent voters in Iowa ages 18 or older, of which 400 said they would definitely or probably participate in the February 2012 Republican caucuses. Interviewers contacted individuals randomly selected from the Iowa voter registration list by telephone. The full sample of 1,831 respondents was adjusted for age and sex based on distribution among active Republican and no-party registered voters. Questions asked of the 400 likely Republican caucusgoers have a margin of error of plus or minus 4.9 percentage points. Results based on smaller samples of respondents — such as by gender or age — have a larger margin of error.


-----------------------------

Did anyone catch Bachmann's newest gafe during an interview after her announcement about being like John Wayne- he was born in Waterloo, Iowa which he wasn't, he was born in another town in Iowa however, John Wayne Gacy, Jr. was born in Waterloo, Iowa. John Wayne Gacy, Jr. was a serial killer and rapist-

known as the Killer Clown who committed the rape and murder of 33 teenage boys and young men between 1972 and 1978. Twenty-six of Gacy's victims were buried in the crawlspace of his home, three others elsewhere on his property and four victims were discarded in a nearby river.

Gacy became known as the "Killer Clown" due to his charitable services at fundraising events, parades and children's parties where he would dress as "Pogo the Clown," a character he devised himself.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Wayne_Gacy

Does this woman ever fact check???

Texas Governor Perry likely to run in 2012

http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/...dChannel=10102

I guess there are some that want another back-slapping, swaggering Texas govenor in the Whit House.... WTF?

The recently revealed old clips about Romney and his actual performance as a "jobs creator" when he ran against Ted Kennedy in the Senate (1990's) are very interesting.

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0711/58952.html

I keep thinking Romney is of the same cut as all the prior GOP nominee's that just figure "it's their time to be president." Some things about the GOP have not changed.

or as i prefer to call them: Greedy Old Patriarchs!

unfortunately, the Demos are not much better especially when it comes to taking bribes from, and then being indebted to, Big Corporate Capitalism. i voted for Ralph Nader in 2000, took a lot of crap for it from other left of center people, and so held my nose and voted for Demos at the top of the ticket (USA President or Michigan Governor depending on the year). and i continue to be horribly disappointed, both by President Obama and by former Michigan Governor Granholm.

so once again i am debating whether to keep voting for the Evil of Two Lessers Democrats, or just say to hell with them and vote strictly for Greens, Socialists, or other real progressives who do not take bribes from the top one percent. and i am leaning heavily towards the Green/Socialist/other real progressives option. yes, i know, they probably won't win and maybe Repubs will end up winning. but even when Demos do win, it seems like the real winners end up being the Greedy Old Patriarchs.