Quote:
Originally Posted by Sabine Gallais
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Actually, if this were a Republican President there would be no comment what-so-ever.
Look, the POTUS can't just catch a commercial flight out of Dulles and land in Mumbai. He is going to have an entourage. At *minimum* he's going to be traveling with:
1) His Secret Service detail.
2) The Presidential medical team (and yes, he has his own medical team and no, they SHOULDN'T just check the POTUS into the nearest hospital)
3) His military advisory team (meaning the guy who carries the 'football').
4) Vehicular support team (and no, the POTUS shouldn't just use whatever transportation is convenient at his destination).
5) His advisory staff--so probably his CoS and a few others.
6) Ground support crew for all the vehicles (the Air Force and Marines are NOT about to let someone else work on vehicles carrying the POTUS).
That's the minimum. Figure a dozen people on his personal detail (immediate, close-in physical protection plus the snipers, driver, etc.). The Secret Service advance team (before the President even sets foot on AF1 a team of agents is already on the ground at the destination, coordinating the security arrangements with the locals). Figure the medical team is two or three people. There's the guy carrying the football. Then there's the drivers for the vehicles which is usually three or four--the one carrying the POTUS and two or three other vehicles for the security detail and as decoys.
Now, that means two aircraft (AF1, as far as I am aware, has no more cargo capacity than a standard, commercial 747 since the aircraft is packed full of electronics so that the POTUS can run the country from anywhere); AF1 and a cargo aircraft to carry the vehicles. Marine 1 (the Presidential helicopter) also flies with him requires another cargo vehicle (a C-5 Galaxy) to carry it.
So when the President takes the show on the road, we're talking upwards of 50 or 60 people total. C-5s and 747s are NOT cheap vehicles to operate.
Now, is the $200 million figure correct? No, I would strongly doubt that it is a quarter of that figure but it is not cheap to fly the President anywhere. Now, we COULD, I suppose, decide that the POTUS simply doesn't travel but the consequences of that would be rather negative. In fact, I did a little research on what it costs for the President to travel and found the following:
1) In 2002 the entire White House travel budget was around $4 million for the YEAR! Now, I understand that inflation happens but it would be shocking to see that ONE trip, 8 years later, would cost 50 TIMES as much!
2) Cost of flying AF 1 = ~ $60K per hour (figure from 2002 is $34K to $56K so I'm taking the highest number and adding to it a bit)
3) Food and board for his entourage = ~ $60K (again, the figure is from 2002 and I'm taking the upper range)
Now, taking these numbers--in fact, I'll actually be generous and err on the side of it being more expensive.
Flight time DC to Delhi (18 hours) @ $100,000 per hour (meaning I've almost *doubled* the operational cost of AF 1). $1,800,000 one way. Total cost = $3,600,000.
Food and board for the Presidential detail. Call it $100,000 per day (like I said, I'm being generous) Length of this visit is 2 days so ~ $200,000.
Let's say, for sake of argument, that the actual operational cost of a C-5 or C-17 (the only aircraft that could lift the vehicles the POTUS travels with) is 1/4 the cost of operating AF-1. But to be generous, we'll double that figure. So call it $50,000 per hour. That's another $3,600,000 for two aircraft (assuming one carries the helicopter and the other carries the ground vehicles).
Let's also say that it's another $250,000 per day for miscellaneous (meaning salaries, etc. although it's going to be nowhere near that).
That means that the two day trip is:
$7,200,000 for transportation costs (all three aircraft)
$200,000 for food and lodging
$500,000 for miscellaneous expenses.
Total cost $7,900,000. That's for the WHOLE trip. Now, in order for this story to be at all true, we have to account for another $392,100,000.
Let's say that my figures are too low by half--that brings the total to $16,000,000 for the entire trip. Meaning we'd still have to figure out where another $384,000,000 is going.
Now, my figures are rough, back-of-the-envelope numbers and I doubt that we can get at the actual figures for a very simple reason. If you know what an entity is spending money on, you can--if you are a trained intelligence analyst--make some kind of reasonable guesses as to WHAT they are spending it on and thus their capabilities. There is a reason why every intelligence agency on the planet keeps their budgets as a closely-guarded secret--keys to the kingdom secret. When I worked at NSA one of the things we listened for were mentions of budgets for the Soviet military. Why? Because if we knew what, say, a Guards Tank regiment had allocated we could know if they had gotten new T-80 tanks, for example. If you know the precise figure that is spent shuttling the POTUS then you can start to make reasonable guesses about what they money is going to. So given that, how likely do you think it is that the White House would allow a leak of what this trip will cost? How likely do you think it is that the Secret Service would let that kind of leak slide?
This isn't a partisan argument, this is an argument about math. The numbers simply do not work, UNLESS, of course, the POTUS is traveling with a light infantry division. If he's taking the entire 10th Mountain Division with him then I can see $200 million a day but since I doubt that he's traveling to a foreign nation with a fully-armed infantry division (nation's tend to take a dim view of that kind of thing) I don't see how this figure can have anything to do with reality.
One other thing, regarding the fleet of warships in the region. That would be the US 7th fleet. The 7th fleet is ALWAYS on station in the Indian Ocean. That is their area of operations. Whether they are loitering off the coast of India or steaming around the region, about a quarter of those ships would be there no matter what.
There will be at least one carrier battle group in the area (probably centered on the USS George Washington) which means--at minimum--the following:
1 aircraft carrier
2 guided missile cruisers
2 anti-aircraft cruisers
2 anti-submarine frigates or destroyers
Add to that one or two Los Angeles-class attack subs and a boomer (missile submarine) for a total of ten.
Cheers
Aj