Japanese reactor crisis

[Medusa]

Ohhh crap. Trying not to wring my hands but just heard on CNN that the second reactor had an explosion and that they think the containment vessle has been ruptured and that radioactive material may be leaking out.
On the surface I get what this means, but do we have a way of determining how much material will leak and how fast? An equation that says something like "Size of Vessel x temperature of exposed fuel rods x length of exposure = amount of radiation that will escape"? And further, what is the area that will be affected?

And would there be other factors that would affect how much and how long radiation will leak? Like, and pardon my ignorance here, if the temperature is cold outside vs hot and humid, does that make a difference? Does snow help drop that radiation to the ground? What if it rains?

(just call me chicken little)

[Andrew, Jr.]

I saw that too Medusa. It is scarey. I just wonder not only about the environment, but the poor folks who live so close to that plant. I am wondering also about the animals (both sea and land). The ripple effect is enormous for all of us.

[AtLast]

Originally Posted by Medusa

Ohhh crap. Trying not to wring my hands but just heard on CNN that the second reactor had an explosion and that they think the containment vessle has been ruptured and that radioactive material may be leaking out.
On the surface I get what this means, but do we have a way of determining how much material will leak and how fast? An equation that says something like "Size of Vessel x temperature of exposed fuel rods x length of exposure = amount of radiation that will escape"? And further, what is the area that will be affected?

And would there be other factors that would affect how much and how long radiation will leak? Like, and pardon my ignorance here, if the temperature is cold outside vs hot and humid, does that make a difference? Does snow help drop that radiation to the ground? What if it rains?

(just call me chicken little)

You are not being chicken. We should be asking questions and researching about what all of this could mean. I was feeling much more reassured with info from top nuclear power scientists and engineers just yesterday about containment "vessels" and buildings. Unfortunately, the news thus far about this situation goes beyond the parameters some of these folks talked about and into much more serious scenarios- some unknown or un-chartered territory (just like the Gulf deep water oil spill).

Waiting for the current experts to weigh in instead of the news media per se. Also, when these plants were built and went online is significant in terms of the possible dangers. Some of the hype is not helping in terms of fear factors. Japan has some of the worlds leading people in their nuclear power plant development and research.

Yes, as in past, I think about the fact that these kinds of natural disasters can push the envelope past the theory behind construction and management of these plants into mother nature being the one with the final say- or human error pushing it (hope the containment cement was mixed properly and inspected properly, for example) . Yet, there are people dealing with this that have a lot at stake including millions of their country-people.

[Linus]

Also from Daily What (comparison photo between Sendei 2011 and Nagasaki bombing of WWII) :



http://www.latimes.com/news/nationwo...,2212206.story

[Medusa]

Word, Atlast!
I have been trying to read multiple news sources over the last several days and have been looking at diagrams of nuclear facilities so that I can try to understand what is happening.

It also helps having someone with a scientific background (Thanks AJ!) draw a verbal diagram. Im fairly negative about depending on one news source to tell us everything we need to know and have pretty much accepted that we aren't getting the whole story.

From where I sit, it looks very much like there is a radioactive event of large proportions happening in Japan right now. I hope Im wrong but am fearful that Im not.

[Linus]

http://www.voanews.com/english/news/...117971924.html

[Medusa]

Originally Posted by Linus

http://www.voanews.com/english/news/...117971924.html

This is so frustrating! This article reads as there has been no meltdown and another site http://e.nikkei.com/e/fr/freetop.aspx is talking about how high the radiation shot up after the explosion.

I have been reading BBC news as well but this article from Reuters is fairly enlightening:

http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/...72D8LM20110314

It says the shell is 4 - 8 inches of steel. That's something I didnt know; I thought it was an inch or two (hoping it's closer to 8 than 4!!)

[Linus]

I think the disparity in news is the effect of the internet. We probably won't know for sure until a day or two later. The reality is that news agencies are tripping over each other for the latest and "accurate" (I question how accurate since I don't think they are actually verifying). At the same time, I don't know even if Japanese officials know since the people who would know are doing what they are supposed to: try and contain this as best as they can.

I wonder if there will be a point where they will say "We cannot do anything more.."

[AtLast]

Originally Posted by Linus

I think the disparity in news is the effect of the internet. We probably won't know for sure until a day or two later. The reality is that news agencies are tripping over each other for the latest and "accurate" (I question how accurate since I don't think they are actually verifying). At the same time, I don't know even if Japanese officials know since the people who would know are doing what they are supposed to: try and contain this as best as they can.

I wonder if there will be a point where they will say "We cannot do anything more.."

Good points! And I hope your last statement never happens! And lets face it, things like this get entangled with political motivations as well.

[dreadgeek]

Originally Posted by Linus

I think the disparity in news is the effect of the internet. We probably won't know for sure until a day or two later. The reality is that news agencies are tripping over each other for the latest and "accurate" (I question how accurate since I don't think they are actually verifying). At the same time, I don't know even if Japanese officials know since the people who would know are doing what they are supposed to: try and contain this as best as they can.

I wonder if there will be a point where they will say "We cannot do anything more.."

Yes, I'm not sure what that point will be but I'm willing to bet that at this point, there are folks on the ground who are saying "I don't think we can stop this thing".

I know that folks don't usually think of scientists and engineers as heroes. But I want to ask everyone to take a moment to think about this:

Right now, on site in Japan, there are people in control rooms working in what are now becoming very hot (radioactively not thermally) conditions. There are ways to deal with exposure: everyone is going to be wearing a dosimeter, everyone will be wearing a mask to keep particulates out of their lungs, they'll be wearing protective clothing. But these are people who are in a hazardous area, the hazard is silent, invisible, and pervasive. You can't dodge it, you can't see it, you can't outrun it, and you have to do a job under conditions at the limit of human cognitive ability, on a system that is already stressed beyond its design specification. These are folks who *know* how nasty radiation sickness can be. They know what those alpha particles are doing to their bodies. They know what Strontium and Cesium can do. Now, I don't know that this happened but any kind of *humane* employer would have said "we can't tell you to stay, so we're going to ask for volunteers". I suspect that everyone on site is there because they volunteered. Unless you are a cop, a firefighter or in the military your employer generally isn't going to ask you to do something that you *know* could get you killed.

The operators on site are heroes. We may not think of them as square-jawed action-figures, but right now everyone of them is being as much a hero as any firefighter.

Cheers
Aj

[dreadgeek]

Originally Posted by Medusa

Ohhh crap. Trying not to wring my hands but just heard on CNN that the second reactor had an explosion and that they think the containment vessle has been ruptured and that radioactive material may be leaking out.
On the surface I get what this means, but do we have a way of determining how much material will leak and how fast? An equation that says something like "Size of Vessel x temperature of exposed fuel rods x length of exposure = amount of radiation that will escape"? And further, what is the area that will be affected?

And would there be other factors that would affect how much and how long radiation will leak? Like, and pardon my ignorance here, if the temperature is cold outside vs hot and humid, does that make a difference? Does snow help drop that radiation to the ground? What if it rains?

(just call me chicken little)

Those are all good questions and at the absolute outside limit of my current expertise. I don't believe that there is an equation that will allow one to calculate exposure based upon the size of the vessel. I have been unable to find any information (and it may be that no one knows) how badly damaged the containment vessel is. At this moment, most of the radiation danger is still coming from the steam.

I'm quite concerned at this point. I'm not sure that they are going to be able to pull this off.

This is now really terra incognita. It's surpassed TMI but still isn't as bad as Chernobyl.


Cheers
Aj