Politics: 2018 midterm elections

[*Anya*]

It was suggested a while ago that we start another thread to keep up with all the news regarding the midterms.

There is a lot happening.

I read yesterday that Mitch McConnell is worried about Republicans losing the senate, in addition to the house.

Trump, it seems, is a millstone around Republican political necks.

Then, this morning, I read about internal squabbling at the DNC.

It left me wondering if Democrats will, once again: grab defeat from the jaws of victory.

[*Anya*]

Just how big is the Democratic wave going to be this fall?

Analysis by Chris Cillizza, CNN Editor-at-large

Updated 12:36 PM ET, Wed April 25, 2018

(CNN) If you're wondering whether the 2018 midterm elections will be a Democratic wave, you're asking the wrong question. The fall contests will undoubtedly be a national referendum on Donald Trump's first two years in office and, if polling (and history) is to be believed, Democrats will reap the electoral rewards from the negative views of the President among a majority of the country.

The real question you should be asking yourself is how large will this wave be? Will it be small (15-20-seat Democratic pickup), medium (25-35-seat pickup) or large (35-plus-seat pickup)?

Reminder: Democrats need to net 23 seats to retake the House majority.

Judging by what happened in an Arizona special election on Tuesday night, the "large" wave option now looks to be very much in play.

"If the only data point you had to go on was last night's #AZ08 result, you'd think a 30-40 seat Dem House gain in Nov. would be way low," tweeted David Wasserman, the House editor of the non-partisan Cook Political Report.

Here's why.

Yes, Republican Debbie Lesko beat Democrat Hiral Tipirneni in the 8th District special election triggered by former Republican Rep. Trent Franks resignation amid claims of sexual harassment.
But, Lesko's margin -- 5.2 percentage points -- is far less than the 25 points Mitt Romney won the district by in 2012 or the 21-point margin for Trump in 2016.

In a vacuum, that result could be dismissed as simply a one-off -- a special election with two little-known candidates yadda yadda yadda. The problem is that what happened in Arizona on Tuesday -- dramatic Democratic overperformance of the party's candidate -- is far from an isolated incident.

According to CNN's own resident big brain Harry Enten, "the average improvement for the Democrats has been 17 percentage points versus the partisan baseline. That's better than any party out of power has done in the lead-up to a midterm cycle since at least 1994."

The lesson here is obvious: Driven by their distaste for Trump, the Democratic base is turning out in droves. The Republican base, fat and happy with control of the House, Senate and the White House, is less galvanized. And, loosely-affiliated partisans seem to be acting much more like Democrats than Republicans in the elections since Trump won the White House.

The threat to Republicans should also be obvious: A month removed from Democratic Rep. Conor Lamb winning a southwestern Pennsylvania seat that Trump carried by 20 points in 2016, Lesko eked out a victory in a seat where Trump won by 21.

If seats like Pennsylvania's 18th and Arizona's 8th are competitive, then the number of Republican vulnerabilities is bigger than anyone thought.

"There are 147 GOP-held House seats less Republican than #AZ08," tweeted Wasserman. "It's time to start rethinking how many of those are truly safe in November." (A bit of quick math produces this: 62% of the 237 seats Republicans will hold -- once Lesko is sworn in -- are less friendly for the GOP than Arizona's 8th.)

Tweeted The New York Times' Nate Cohn: "There are a bunch of open districts that aren't considered top-tier races by most analysts --TX-2, TX-6, FL-6, OH-16, TX-21, FL-15 -- that, by the numbers, look plausibly competitive in a wave election. On paper, they're better Dem targets than, say, AZ-8/KS-4/PA-18."

If the Republican playing field is anywhere close to that 147 number, that makes it at least twice as large as most non-partisan political handicappers currently believe it to be.

CNN rates 73 Republican seats as potentially competitive. The Cook Report puts 84 Republican districts in that competitive category while Inside Elections, another independent campaign tipsheet, has 58 competitive GOP seats.

What we know is that in a wave, seats get washed away that many people didn't even know were competitive. The larger the number of vulnerable districts, the more that could potentially get washed away.

And, from a more practical standpoint, Republicans and their aligned super PACs have only so much money to spend in 2018. The more of their own seats that come online as competitive, the more hard decisions party committees and super PACs will have to make about who gets money and who doesn't.

Simply stated: Arizona's 8th District results suggests that the coming wave is big -- and getting bigger.

https://www.cnn.com/2018/04/25/polit...rms/index.html

[Kätzchen]

So glad you got this up and going, Anya. I'll be reading and I've subscribed to your forum thread. It's super critical to stay committed to progress we make in the coming weeks and months ahead.

Thanks so much,
Kätzchen

[BullDog]

2018 midterms are our only chance to survive. It is so critical that people vote and that voter suppression efforts are stopped.

[cathexis]

Originally Posted by BullDog

2018 midterms are our only chance to survive. It is so critical that people vote and that voter suppression efforts are stopped.

The area I live in is blue, true blue (NY, VT area). Anything I
can do to help folks in states at risk? Have a great deal of
open time. Money, well...that's an issue best not discussed.

[DapperButch]

Originally Posted by *Anya*

It was suggested a while ago that we start another thread to keep up with all the news regarding the midterms.

There is a lot happening.

I read yesterday that Mitch McConnell is worried about Republicans losing the senate, in addition to the house.

Trump, it seems, is a millstone around Republican political necks.

Then, this morning, I read about internal squabbling at the DNC.

It left me wondering if Democrats will, once again: grab defeat from the jaws of victory.

Yeah, we'll probably screw it up.

[BullDog]

Originally Posted by cathexis

The area I live in is blue, true blue (NY, VT area). Anything I
can do to help folks in states at risk? Have a great deal of
open time. Money, well...that's an issue best not discussed.

This is a very good question. If I hear of anything I will pass along the info.

Originally Posted by DapperButch

Yeah, we'll probably screw it up.

No, we can't afford it! But yeah, anytime things start to look favorable for the Democrats, I too wonder how they are going to manage to screw it up.

(after close to 20 years on BF sites I have learned how to multi-quote. So proud, lol.)

[*Anya*]

Beto O'Rourke wants to debate Ted Cruz 6 times, including twice in Spanish

"A debate in Spanish would not be very good because my Spanish isn’t good enough," U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz said at a campaign event Tuesday afternoon, "but I look forward to debating Congressman O’Rourke."

BY PATRICK SVITEK MAY 1, 2018 UPDATED: 4:25 PM

U.S. Rep. Beto O'Rourke, D-El Paso, has invited U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz, R-Texas, to participate in six debates with O'Rourke across Texas, two of them in Spanish, during their U.S. Senate race.

O'Rourke campaign manager Jody Casey made the proposal in a letter last week to Cruz's senior staff, adding that the debates should have "media reach to all twenty markets in the state."

"I would like to begin direct coordination of the debates with your campaign team between now and May 10th," Casey wrote to Cruz advisers Bryan English and Eric Hollander in the April 24 letter. “Please advise my best point of contact on the Cruz campaign team."

Cruz previously suggested he is open to debating O'Rourke. Cruz's campaign said in response to the letter that it was exploring its options.

"Sen. Cruz has said he's looking forward to debates," Cruz spokeswoman Catherine Frazier said in a statement. "We are considering all possibilities in front of us and will be working with potential hosts and the O'Rourke campaign to determine the best platforms available so that Texans from all corners of the state can hear from the candidates directly about their views for Texas' future."

Regardless of what the campaigns ultimately agree to, debates in Spanish between the candidates seem unlikely. While O'Rourke is fluent in the language, Cruz is not known as a proficient speaker.

After a campaign event Tuesday afternoon in San Antonio, Cruz admitted to reporters that his Spanish "remains lousy" before offering a sentence in the language: "I understand almost everything, but I can't speak like I want to." Cruz, whose father came to America from Cuba, chalked up his shoddy Spanish skills to "the curse of the second-generation immigrant," adding that he suspects many in the Hispanic community can relate.

"A debate in Spanish would not be very good because my Spanish isn’t good enough, but I look forward to debating Congressman O’Rourke," Cruz said.

Still, Cruz has professed little resistance to sparring with O'Rourke so far. Asked in March if he would debate O'Rourke, Cruz told reporters he is "sure we'll see a debate in this race." Cruz noted that he debated U.S. Sen. Bernie Sanders, I-Vt., multiple times on national TV last year before adding, "I am not remotely afraid to debate left-wing liberal socialists."

During a conference call with supporters Thursday, O'Rourke alluded to the letter while fielding a question about whether there will be a debate between him and Cruz.

"We certainly want a debate," O'Rourke said, adding that his campaign is working to "make sure that we give every voter in Texas the opportunity to know the difference between the two candidates, their track record of service, what they hope to achieve for the state of Texas and the way in which they are campaigning."

O'Rourke suggested he was undeterred by Cruz's past as a college debate champion and a lawyer who has argued before the U.S. Supreme Court nine times.

"While I know that Cruz is a master debater, a very skilled politician, a very shrewd person ... I would love the opportunity to talk about what all of us have been doing together over the course of the campaign and what we want to achieve for Texas," O'Rourke told supporters. "I’m very much looking forward to it."

https://www.texastribune.org/2018/05...ent=8304509940

[*Anya*]

NOTE: Analyis of 7 districts can be found at link at the bottom. Article too long to post.

CALIFORNIA HOUSE
House: Democrats Risk Disaster in California's Top Two Primaries

David Wasserman May 2, 2018

Republicans badly need a few lucky breaks to hold their House majority in November. So far in 2018, it's been the opposite story — from an unfriendly new Pennsylvania map to Speaker Paul Ryan's retirement and bleak special election results. But with five weeks to go before California's June 5 primary, Democrats are at risk of squandering several seats that would otherwise appear to be golden pickup opportunities.

Democrats' path to a majority depends on California more than any other state: they have excellent chances in seven GOP seats that Hillary Clinton carried in 2016, and a few more could be long shots in a wave. But in at least four districts, Democratic over-enthusiasm has produced crowded fields that could lock Democrats out of the fall race altogether.

Under California's unorthodox "top two" primary system — first implemented in 2012 — all candidates appear on the same June primary ballot and the top two finishers, regardless of party, advance to a November runoff. In 2012, catastrophe struck Democrats when their top candidate in the new 31st CD, Pete Aguilar, took third place in the primary behind two Republicans, locking them out of a highly winnable race (Aguilar won the seat in 2014).

The same fate could befall other Democrats in 2018. In the 39th, 48th and 49th districts -- all Orange County GOP seats that voted for Clinton — the "blue wave" has generated throngs of viable Democratic candidates in districts where GOP voters traditionally make up a majority of the primary vote. And while Democrats have struggled to break out of their packs, there are at least two viable Republican candidates on the ballot in each of those races.

At the moment, Democrats face the greatest danger of a shutout in the 48th CD, where Rep. Dana Rohrabacher faces a credible challenge from former Orange County GOP chair Scott Baugh and three credible Democrats will be dividing their party's vote. But it's also possible Democrats could fail to make the fall ballot in the 39th and 49th CDs, where Reps. Ed Royce and Darrell Issa are retiring, as well as tarnished Rep. Duncan Hunter's 50th CD.

Democrats have had nightmares about "lockout" scenarios all cycle. And in some ways, the DCCC is in a paralyzing predicament. If top House Democrats don't insert themselves in races and a Democrat fails to advance to November, they would get blamed for whistling past a train wreck. But whenever they do, they risk looking like aloof meddlers and tarring their intended beneficiary as the candidate of "Beltway insiders."

The DCCC has been most assertive in the 39th CD, adding retired Navy officer Gil Cisneros to its Red to Blue list to try to help him break out of a six-Democrat pack. Democrats have also succeeded in pressuring several lower-tier candidates to drop out of races to improve their odds, including Phil Janowicz and Jay Chen in the 39th CD and Laura Oatman and Rachel Payne in the 48th CD (though it's too late to take their names off the ballot).

But over the next month, it may have no choice to take more aggressive action in the 48th and 49th CDs to avoid lockouts. That could involve engineering high-profile endorsements for one Democrat or strategically attacking certain GOP candidates with independent expenditures.

It's an unenviable task, because DCCC Chair Rep. Ben Ray Lujan and House Democrats are operating in a much different media environment than the one 2006 DCCC Chair Rep. Rahm Emanuel faced. In 2006, activist blogs were a relatively new political phenomenon and it was easier to maneuver behind the scenes. In 2018, jilted campaigns routinely leak damaging audio to The Intercept and social media, not DC, makes or breaks candidacies.

The GOP's lack of viable statewide contenders and Trump's unpopularity on the West Coast could be an existential threat to the 14 remaining Republicans in California's 53-member delegation. But the state's top-two system could throw some of them a life raft. Traditionally, the state's June electorate is much older and more Republican than its November electorate, and Democrats must increase their own voters' participation to avoid catastrophe.

Democrats' potential for Golden State gains hinges on high-stakes primaries in the seven districts below — especially those in the 39th, 48th, and 49th.

https://cookpolitical.com/analysis/h...-two-primaries

[Kätzchen]

Here's an interesting article of information regarding seats up for election or reelection, in terms of Democratic seats vs GOP seats.

LINK: https://ballotpedia.org/United_State...lections,_2018

[*Anya*]

Originally Posted by cathexis

The area I live in is blue, true blue (NY, VT area). Anything I
can do to help folks in states at risk? Have a great deal of
open time. Money, well...that's an issue best not discussed.

I went online and googled "ways to help northern NY and VT" and got this. There are ways to help other than just money. I'm glad that you asked the question.

I think this applies to all states! Even blue states should take nothing for granted. All states have a League of Women Voters organization.

The League of Women Voters of the North Country do things like community education and assisting in registering new voters.

http://www.plattsburgh.ny.lwvnet.org

https://www.northcountrypublicradio....iberal-vermont

[Kätzchen]

Anya? BullDog?? Andrea???

Did any of you see last week that Ohio is trying to create legislation in favor of the far right political view that impedes an woman's choice to exercise abortion?

I mention this because Swing States are the proverbial wild cards to watch out for in any election cycle....especially Ohio.

Here's an NPR news article about the Ohio GOP trying to pass an Anti-abortion bill in their House of Representatives.

LINK:
https://www.npr.org/sections/thetwo-...o-ban-abortion

[Kätzchen]

Here is an article from Politico about Obama endorsing Diane Feinstien.... for re-election during the midterm election process for California.

LINK: https://www.politico.com/story/2018/...rsement-569178

[BullDog]

Sorry have been up to my eyebrows in work but thanks for the link. Ohio is definitely a critical state to watch and if things continue to look bad for Republicans they will probably try to cram more legislation through while they have power - both at the state and federal level.

The corruption from the White House continues to astound (not necessarily surprising but well beyond any level of corruption we have ever seen. )

Originally Posted by Kätzchen

Anya? BullDog?? Andrea???

Did any of you see last week that Ohio is trying to create legislation in favor of the far right political view that impedes an woman's choice to exercise abortion?

I mention this because Swing States are the proverbial wild cards to watch out for in any election cycle....especially Ohio.

Here's an NPR news article about the Ohio GOP trying to pass an Anti-abortion bill in their House of Representatives.

LINK:
https://www.npr.org/sections/thetwo-...o-ban-abortion

[Kätzchen]

Originally Posted by BullDog

Sorry have been up to my eyebrows in work but thanks for the link. Ohio is definitely a critical state to watch and if things continue to look bad for Republicans they will probably try to cram more legislation through while they have power - both at the state and federal level.

The corruption from the White House continues to astound (not necessarily surprising but well beyond any level of corruption we have ever seen. )

Oh, I am so distraught with the way they make it look like they care about policies when in fact they don't care at all, except for how they will cash in on setting up their own version of x, y or z.....Which will help no one.

And yes, corruption is exactly what's going on.

I agree with you Bulldog!

[*Anya*]

June 5th

California primaries
Senate: Dianne Feinstein is up for re-election.
House: 10 out of 53 races are competitive in the general election.

California offers some of the biggest opportunities for Democrats to take back the House, given changing demographics, the decline of the Republican Party in the state and policies being pushed in Washington. Two of the most vulnerable Republicans — Ed Royce in the 39th District and Darrell Issa in the 49th District — have already announced that they are not seeking re-election.

Mississippi primaries
Senate: Roger Wicker is up for re-election.
Senator Thad Cochran’s decision to retire set off a game of musical chairs. Instead of Senator Roger Wicker defending his seat from a major rival in a Republican primary on June 5, the state’s big battle is expected in November, when there there will be a special election to finish Mr. Cochran’s term. Chris McDaniel, a state senator who almost unseated Mr. Cochran in 2014 and had previously decided to challenge Mr. Wicker, will run in a growing field for Mr. Cochran’s seat instead.

Alabama primaries

Iowa primaries
House: 2 out of 4 races are competitive in the general election.

Montana primaries
Senate: Jon Tester is up for re-election.
House: 1 race is competitive in the general election.

New Jersey primaries
Senate: Robert Menendez is up for re-election.
House: 5 out of 12 races are competitive in the general election.

New Mexico primaries
Senate: Martin Heinrich is up for re-election.
House: 1 out of 3 races is competitive in the general election.

South Dakota primaries
Senate: Martin Heinrich is up for re-election.
House: 1 out of 3 races is competitive in the general election.

June 12th

The Nevada Senate seat is crucial for Republicans.

Nevada primaries
Senate: Dean Heller is up for re-election.
House: 2 out of 4 races are competitive in the general election.
Mr. Heller no longer faces a primary fight against Danny Tarkanian, a Nevada businessman who had fiercely criticized Mr. Heller, after Mr. Trump persuaded Mr. Tarkanian to drop out of the race. In the Fourth District, Representative Ruben Kihuen, a Democrat, said he would not seek re-election after sexual misconduct accusations surfaced.

Maine primaries
Senate: Angus King is up for re-election.
House: 1 out of 2 races is competitive in the general election.

North Dakota primaries
Senate: Heidi Heitkamp is up for re-election.

South Carolina primaries

Virginia primaries
Senate: Tim Kaine is up for re-election.
House: 4 out of 11 races are competitive in the general election.

June 19

Arkansas primaries runoff

June 26

New York Democrats are energized to run in Republican-held districts.

New York primaries
Senate: Kirsten Gillibrand is up for re-election.
House: 5 out of 27 races are competitive in the general election.

Eight Democrats have combined to raise nearly $4 million in the Democratic primary to challenge Representative John Faso, a Republican, in New York’s 19th Congressional District, which covers much of the Hudson River Valley.

Maryland primaries
Senate: Benjamin L. Cardin is up for re-election.
Chelsea Manning, a former Army private convicted of disclosing classified information, has filed to run in the Democratic primary against Mr. Cardin, who won handily in 2012.

Utah primaries
Senate: The Senate race is open. (Senator Orrin G. Hatch is not seeking re-election.)
House: 1 out of 4 races is competitive in the general election.
Mitt Romney, a former Republican presidential candidate and a critic of Mr. Trump, is expected to cruise to victory in the primary and general elections.

Colorado primaries
House: 1 out of 7 races is competitive in the general election.

Oklahoma primaries

Mississippi primaries runoff

South Carolina primaries runoff

June 30

Texas special House election
Texas is holding a special election in the 27th District to fill the former seat of Blake Farenthold, a Republican who resigned after using taxpayer funds to settle a sexual harassment case with his former communications director. A crowded field of nine candidates means that a September runoff is likely.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/...y-results.html

[Orema]

Fran Lebowitz
Francesca Donner
Sophia Nelson
Julia Baird

March 4, 2018

[cathexis]

Originally Posted by *Anya*

I went online and googled "ways to help northern NY and VT" and got this. There are ways to help other than just money. I'm glad that you asked the question.

I think this applies to all states! Even blue states should take nothing for granted. All states have a League of Women Voters organization.

The League of Women Voters of the North Country do things like community education and assisting in registering new voters.

http://www.plattsburgh.ny.lwvnet.org

https://www.northcountrypublicradio....iberal-vermont

Thanks Anya for the links. Just got them due to a personal issue which has kept me offline for awhile.
Contacted them to see what help I can offer.

[Kätzchen]

Caleb Frostman just clinched the democratic seat in Wisconsin's House of Representatives, tonight.

Big election upset. Huge win!!!

LINK:

HuffPost: Democrats Score Special Election Upset In Wisconsin District Trump Won Big.


https://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry...=NEWSSTAND0001

[Kätzchen]

London Breed was elected as San Fransico's first African-American woman Mayor.

Breed's vision for the city is to develop and implement more housing opportunities and to increase diversity within the city.

Here's an link to this news story about London Breed:

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.sfc...n-12991871.php