2020 Presidential Election

[Cin]

Why the stability of the 2020 race promises more volatility ahead

In a presidency of unprecedented disruption and turmoil, Donald Trump's support has remained remarkably stable. That stability, paradoxically, points toward years of rising turbulence in American politics and life.

Trump's approval ratings and support in the presidential race against Democratic nominee Joe Biden have oscillated in a strikingly narrow range of around 40%-45% that appears largely immune to both good news -- the long economic boom during his presidency's first years -- and bad -- impeachment, the worst pandemic in more than a century, revelations that he's disparaged military service and blunt warnings that he is unfit for the job from former senior officials in his own government. Perhaps the newest disclosures, in the upcoming book from Bob Woodward, that Trump knew the coronavirus was far more dangerous than the common flu even as he told Americans precisely the opposite, will break this pattern, but most political strategists in both parties are skeptical that it will.

The durability of both support and opposition to Trump shows how the motivation for voters' choices is shifting from transitory measures of performance, such as the traditional metrics of peace and prosperity, toward bedrock attitudes about demographic, cultural and economic change. The immovability of the battle lines in 2020 captures how thoroughly the two parties are now unified -- and separated -- by their contrasting attitudes toward these fundamental changes, with Trump mobilizing overwhelming support from the voters who are hostile to them, no matter what else happens, and the contrasting coalition of Americans who welcome this evolution flocking toward the Democrats.

"That is certainly what gives Trump a floor: By stoking those cultural war fires you are going to win over a certain share of the electorate that has this more racist and sexist and xenophobic views," says Brian Schaffner, a Tufts University political scientist who has extensively studied the correlation between political preferences and cultural attitudes. "But it also prevents him from winning over these other people who would otherwise be conservative or be open to voting Republican, but simply can't stomach that culture war stuff he is so focused on."

In the near term, this alignment has produced a campaign dynamic in which Trump consistently trails Biden, but not so severely that despite all the controversies that might have capsized an earlier incumbent, he cannot squeeze out another narrow win in the Electoral College.

Over the long term, the durability of attitudes toward Trump spotlights the likelihood of a widening rift between two Americas fundamentally diverging in both their exposure to and attitudes about such fundamental dynamics as the nation's growing racial and religious diversity, rising demands for greater racial equality, changing gender roles and the transition from an industrial to an information age economy.

"When your identity and view of [the nation's] identity overlaps with your partisan identity so much, it's hard to ever consider shifting sides," Schaffner says.

The article is too long to post. If interested the rest can be read here:

https://www.cnn.com/2020/09/15/polit...ews/index.html

The bottom line is regardless of what happens, a cultural war is looming.

[homoe]

Schmidt, who quit the GOP in 2018 over its support for Trump, is one of the cofounders of The Lincoln Project, a group of “never Trump” conservatives working against the president’s reelection.

He said Trump’s efforts to downplay the virus made the United States the world’s epicenter of coronavirus death and suffering, and pointed to a shattered economy, mass unemployment, interrupted education and a still-rising death toll.

A death rate similar to Germany would have meant 140,000 fewer deaths in the United States. Instead, Trump seems to be pushing for herd immunity, which Schmidt described as “the most immoral plan ever articulated in the history of the country by a president.”

Schmidt cited estimates that a herd immunity approach without a vaccine could lead to nearly 3 million deaths.

[BullDog]

One of the worst possible things that could have happened before the election just occurred. Ruth Bader Ginsberg has died. May she rest in peace for all that she has done for our country.

I think there is zero chance that McConnell won't try to ram through a conservative justice. My guess is they will wait to vote until after November 3 during the lame duck session. I don't know if the Democrats can do anything to stop it.

[girl_dee]

Originally Posted by BullDog

One of the worst possible things that could have happened before the election just occurred. Ruth Bader Ginsberg has died. May she rest in peace for all that she has done for our country.

I think there is zero chance that McConnell won't try to ram through a conservative justice. My guess is they will wait to vote until after November 3 during the lame duck session. I don't know if the Democrats can do anything to stop it.

Yes it is the worst possible thing. What makes it worse is that she told her granddaughter she wanted to outlive the election.

[A. Spectre]

Moscow Mitch picking a new judge isn't a done deal


Losing RBG was a cruel blow and I hit the scotch hard last night, pounded my fist on the table and got the rage out of my system and now I am ready to fight like hell. We have Murkowski and we need 3 more defectors. This game isn't over by any means. Time to ratchet up the heat on these moderate republicans. Are they organizing massive demonstrations like the women’s march? Tell me where and when and I am there. Sent another big donation to Biden and the Democrats. No whining. Biden’s lead has been quietly expanding in the battleground states and this is looking like a landslide. Worst case scenario and Moscow Mitch succeeds? After we win we will just expand the USSC to 13, increase the number of federal judges and flood the courts with our picks and push Puerto Rico to embrace statehood giving us 2 more Senators. But we have to win big first. Fight my sisters and brothers! FIGHT! This is our country and we are taking it back.

I am a tad concerned that the death of RBG will take needed focus on Covid-19 and trump's criminal activities off the news cycle.

[A. Spectre]

Trump to his female supporters: I hope your husbands okayed you attending my rallies.


THIS is the same predator in the same speech who said he will nominate a female for SCOTUS. How many women who have come forward alleging unwanted sexual advances to outright rape against this sadist? Too many people out there who have the power to vote believe a lying, stupid, deranged less-than-human mass murderer to be at the helm another 4 years.

But Hillary's emails. *sigh

[Kätzchen]

Team Pelosi newsflash: Nancy Pelosi will "use every arrow in the quiver" to stop GOP/TP from nominating a USSCJ.

https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/pelo...e_hero_related