Gulf Oil Slick

[Glenn]

Aj; Why do you think our government is restricting our awareness of this profound event? it's a hard lesson for all of us to learn.

[dreadgeek]

Originally Posted by popcorninthesofa

Aj; Why do you think our government is restricting our awareness of this profound event? it's a hard lesson for all of us to learn.

Popcorn:

So now you're going to try to change the subject? I have not said anything about the government's behavior. Do I think that the government is trying to cover BPs corporate ass? Yes, as a matter of fact, I do. However, that is a *separate* issue from the breathless conspiracy-minded, fear mongering of your jeremiads about methane explosions and tsunamis. These are *separate* issues. In fact, one of the problems I have with the fear-mongering--and it IS fear-mongering--is that it distracts from real concerns (government underreporting of the toxicity of the dispersants, BPs continuing and historical malfeasance, etc.) and puts the attention on non-issues. The methane-bubble-will-kill-us-all meme is a distraction. It is the *least* likely major consequence of this disaster. The government isn't keeping this from the public, there's quite simply nothing to keep. As I pointed out, the type of methane compounds found in the Gulf of Mexico (methane hydrates) are *not* implicated in the great methane bubble explosion theory of extinction.

Now, is the government not stating the true risk of toxicity of the dispersants? Most certainly they are. Are they underestimating the final economic impacts? Almost certainly. Are they clamping down on BP and every other major corporation as they should? Most certainly they are not. However, what good does it do to whip up fear of an event that isn't going to happen? There is certainly lots to be upset with about this disaster However, spreading disinformation--and incorrect information is a form of disinformation--does no one any good.

So, back to the topic at hand. If the person who developed the methane bubble hypothesis says that the kind of methane compounds involved in his model of extinctions and the methane compounds in the Gulf of Mexico are so different that the latter are no kind of threat for the kind of catastrophe described by the former, why should we not give that more weight? Why should we trust the word of this engineer over the word of the man who developed the hypothesis? Why is it that we should focus our attentions on events that are so unlikely that their probability is not far from zero while not *actually* being zero when there are events whose probability is much closer to 1 that should have our attention.

I've answered your questions, popcorn, is there some reason that you are deserving of having your questions answered directly without changing the subject while I am undeserving of the same courtesy from you?

I am not pro-government, popcorn nor am I anti-government. I am pro-facts and pro-reality. What I stand opposed to is allowing bad memes to spread without challenge.

Cheers
Aj

[JustJo]

Originally Posted by dreadgeek

Now, is the government not stating the true risk of toxicity of the dispersants? Most certainly they are. Are they underestimating the final economic impacts? Almost certainly. Are they clamping down on BP and every other major corporation as they should? Most certainly they are not.
Aj

Aj, I think you've hit the nail on the head here...

We should have some major concerns about this situation, but panic-spreading "ain't it awful" scenarios isn't the most effective use of our time and focus.

I believe that we need to be doing some serious examination of safety standards and compliance with regard to offshore drilling, as well as ensure that we aren't poisoning ourselves with dispersants as we try to clean up the mess.

For me, government's primary focus right now should be to ensure that this scenario never occurs again, and that we are better prepared to handle spills in an effective, safe manner.

I don't see any evidence that BP has turned over a new leaf as a good corporate citizen...and that's a bigger concern to me than the ravings of any particular individual looking for their "moment in the sun" on the internet.

[dreadgeek]

Originally Posted by JustJo

Aj, I think you've hit the nail on the head here...

We should have some major concerns about this situation, but panic-spreading "ain't it awful" scenarios isn't the most effective use of our time and focus.

I believe that we need to be doing some serious examination of safety standards and compliance with regard to offshore drilling, as well as ensure that we aren't poisoning ourselves with dispersants as we try to clean up the mess.

For me, government's primary focus right now should be to ensure that this scenario never occurs again, and that we are better prepared to handle spills in an effective, safe manner.

I don't see any evidence that BP has turned over a new leaf as a good corporate citizen...and that's a bigger concern to me than the ravings of any particular individual looking for their "moment in the sun" on the internet.

Jo:

This is precisely my concern with all kinds of rumour and fear mongering--that it distracts from the genuine issues. From the 9/11 Truther to the Birthers to now, I dunno, the Oilers(?) the conspiracies serve as a distraction from the genuine issues. If there is, for instance, a giant methane pocket that is going to explode, release lethal levels of methane into the atmosphere and cause a Permian-style extinction there is nothing anyone can do about it. Not a damn thing. We would be as powerless in the face of that disaster as 19th century people would have been in a K-T extinction-sized rock (about the size of Manhattan island) were to have slammed into the Atlantic ocean in 1850. There would have been a day of terror and then years of eerie, eerie silence. So if that kind of event is going to happen, worrying about it does absolutely no one any kind of good.

On the other hand, we *can* do something about letting corporations run rampant across the social and physical landscape, having the pretense of personhood when convenient (being able to make campaign contributions in the name of 'free speech') but magically shedding personhood when inconvenient (liability or criminal violations). That struggle may be difficult, it may be grueling, it may even take a long time and require constant vigilance lest we are once again lured by the siren's song of unrestrained, unregulated capitalism but it is a *winnable* struggle.

I like to draw a distinction between engineering problems and hard (or scientific) problems. How, if at all possible, to prevent a giant release of methane from 5000 feet under the sea is a scientific problem. If it were a threat (and here I have to reiterate that it is not a threat in the Gulf of Mexico) there would be lots of basic science to be done just so that we could reduce the problem down to one of engineering. What to do about corporate control of the United States is, on the other hand, an engineering problem. By that I mean that we *know*, at least in broad outline, the shape of the solution and the real problem is how to get from here to there.

BP should face both civil and criminal penalties and it is nothing short of a travesty that the top brass at BP and its board are not fearing for the very future of their company. We can do something about that. But if everyone along the Gulf coast were to be panicking and trying to get away from the Giant Methane Bubble that Ate New Orleans then that energy and media attention will be taken up with an event caused by a non-probable issue while the real-world, probable events and actual crisis are ignored.

Cheers
Aj
(Proud member of the reality-based community)

[MsDemeanor]

Originally Posted by popcorninthesofa

Aj; Why do you think our government is restricting our awareness of this profound event? it's a hard lesson for all of us to learn.

I'm gonna guess that we'd all be hard pressed to find an instance where any government made it's citizenry aware of all of the details of a negative-impact event during said event.

[dreadgeek]

Originally Posted by MsDemeanor

I'm gonna guess that we'd all be hard pressed to find an instance where any government made it's citizenry aware of all of the details of a negative-impact event during said event.

If that example exists in history, I have yet to see it. I wonder if it has occurred to some of the conspiracy folks that part of the government's silence is that they simply don't know. We throw around words like 'unprecedented' but this event is truly something unlike anything that has happened before.

Cheers
Aj
(Proud member of the reality-based community)

[AtLast]

Originally Posted by dreadgeek

If that example exists in history, I have yet to see it. I wonder if it has occurred to some of the conspiracy folks that part of the government's silence is that they simply don't know. We throw around words like 'unprecedented' but this event is truly something unlike anything that has happened before.

Cheers
Aj
(Proud member of the reality-based community)

Seems to me that there are quite a few unknowns going on with this situation. From the start, I have been amazed at how so many people think that answers were going to just fall from the sky in stopping the spill as well as cleaning it up. Sure, I wanted that too- and yesterday- but the reality is that the technology is sorely lacking along with all of the other contributing factors.

My major concern is- given this crisis and finding out what we do not know and need to find out- will the resources and political will get behind doing so? Will we appropriately fund the engineers, chemists, physicists, environmental scientists, biologists, etc., to build a safety net against this in the future? Will we bring bright people into this loop and pay them well for their expertise? Or, will magical thinking continue allowing the profit-motive to prevail? And it seems to me that a global effort needs to be at the core of advancing this knowledge... yanno, planet earth. There appears to be some countries that have much better know-how than the US or the UK in all of this.

Oh, yes, reality-based thinking is in order!!

[violaine]

david godfrey grew up in my neck of the woods- central florida, and he used to surf at a popular site in new smyrna beach near the jetties. he encountered sea turtles often while out in the water, and turned his interest of marine life into a career. i thought i'd share a story about 'dawn', a leatherback, and the tracking of sea turtles as they migrate toward the oil spill. there are other stories on the main page.

http://www.conserveturtles.org/press..._dawn_oilspill

[JustJo]

Since the popular news is no longer following this story so intensely, I thought you might like this update from the NY Times.

[weatherboi]

Hi folks!!!

Science Friday had some scientists on the show July 30th.


http://www.npr.org/templates/player/...55&m=128875896

[AtLast]

On one hand, I feel joy that the oil is no longer gushing from this well. On the other, I feel a sense of dred because I believe so much has been and will be swept under the carpet in terms of the real effects this will have on the Gulf.

Will this get buried under the next story of a big disater? Just because this leak is capped, does not mean there is much to do in development of ways to stop this kind of mess. Will we actually change policy and institute safe guards? or, will people forget about this just because we don't see oil floating on top of the water or the tar balls on beaches? Will people realize just how toxic this is in the long run for wildlife and the food chain if we don't have live video streams of that oil gushing? Will resources to avoid something like this again be allocated? Will deep-water drilling continue to be accepted and given approval?

Yanno.... see no evil, hear no evil, say no evil...

[JustJo]

Originally Posted by AtLastHome

On one hand, I feel joy that the oil is no longer gushing from this well. On the other, I feel a sense of dred because I believe so much has been and will be swept under the carpet in terms of the real effects this will have on the Gulf.

Will this get buried under the next story of a big disater? Just because this leak is capped, does not mean there is much to do in development of ways to stop this kind of mess. Will we actually change policy and institute safe guards? or, will people forget about this just because we don't see oil floating on top of the water or the tar balls on beaches? Will people realize just how toxic this is in the long run for wildlife and the food chain if we don't have live video streams of that oil gushing? Will resources to avoid something like this again be allocated? Will deep-water drilling continue to be accepted and given approval?

Yanno.... see no evil, hear no evil, say no evil...

I totally agree with what you're saying here. It seems like an unfortunate reality that most of the time we only deal with the thing that's jumping up and down in front of our faces...another reason we aren't taking any significant action to prevent global warming (but that's another whole thread).