Same-Sex Marriage Update

[Allison W]

Foolish question: do we have a breakdown of how the SCOTUS is likely to vote on marriage equality? I know four of the justices (Scalia, Thomas, Alito, and Roberts) are considered conservative, and I'm pretty damn sure that at the bare minimum Scalia and Thomas will be very against it; and that four of the justices (Ginsburg, Breyer, Sotomayor, and Kagan) are considered liberal and that all four of them are likely to support marriage equality; and that Kennedy is generally regarded as the swing vote on issues frequently divided along conservative/liberal lines. Am I correct to assume that we presumably have five votes between the liberal wing and Kennedy?

[MsTinkerbelly]

Originally Posted by Allison W

Foolish question: do we have a breakdown of how the SCOTUS is likely to vote on marriage equality? I know four of the justices (Scalia, Thomas, Alito, and Roberts) are considered conservative, and I'm pretty damn sure that at the bare minimum Scalia and Thomas will be very against it; and that four of the justices (Ginsburg, Breyer, Sotomayor, and Kagan) are considered liberal and that all four of them are likely to support marriage equality; and that Kennedy is generally regarded as the swing vote on issues frequently divided along conservative/liberal lines. Am I correct to assume that we presumably have five votes between the liberal wing and Kennedy?

My FEELING is that they will continue along the same lines with this decision, as with their other recent decisions allowing equality to move forward.

BUT...Despite all of the recent positive rulings from the SCOTUS, we have to remember that they will be deciding this question for the ENTIRE country, and they ruled against us not that many years ago.


Sorry, that and $1.50 will get you a cup of coffee, but not much else.

[Allison W]

Was the composition of the court different when they ruled against us? Because I know Sotomayor and Kagan were added only within the past few years.

I suppose what's really important is how Kennedy swings on gay rights issues, because that swing vote plus the liberal bloc would get the majority.

...Yep, after poking around on Google, looks like Kennedy will give us the 5-4 majority. Apparently his mentor was gay and he's actually taken it upon himself to write majority opinions supporting pro-gay rulings.

So barring some completely unforeseen upset like a member of the liberal bloc being secretly replaced with a goateed evil twin, marriage equality should be the law of the land once the Supreme Court hears the case.

[MsTinkerbelly]

Originally Posted by Allison W

Was the composition of the court different when they ruled against us? Because I know Sotomayor and Kagan were added only within the past few years.

I suppose what's really important is how Kennedy swings on gay rights issues, because that swing vote plus the liberal bloc would get the majority.

...Yep, after poking around on Google, looks like Kennedy will give us the 5-4 majority. Apparently his mentor was gay and he's actually taken it upon himself to write majority opinions supporting pro-gay rulings.

So barring some completely unforeseen upset like a member of the liberal bloc being secretly

replaced with a goateed evil twin, marriage equality should be
the law of the land once the Supreme Court hears the case.

Excellent point!

The make-up of the SCOTUS was different, and it was a different time when that decision was made.

Unfortunately, the Religious right will step up their efforts to derail equality (as currently seen in Indiana and etc...) and i fear the SCOTUS willl have to once again step in to guarantee our civil rights. Of course, we see what good that has done POC in this country. If they want to discriminate, they will find a way!

[MsTinkerbelly]

The Attorney General of Guam, ordered same-sex marriages available immediately, making it the first US territory to do so.

WTG Guam!

[MsTinkerbelly]

Today it was reported by Hillary Clinton's camp, that she is in favor of nationwide same-sex marriage.

You can read the article on LGBTQnation.com

[MsTinkerbelly]

A Circut Court Judge in Kentucky once again struck down their same-sex marriage ban, but put the decision on hold until the SCOTUS sends down a ruling on the cases (Kentucky is already one of the four states they will hear on April 28th), in order to keep the confusion of one district having the right to marry, while the entire rest of the state would still be banned.